UK to get a new PM on Sep 5. Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak, who is winning the race?
The contest for the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK) will end today (September 2) with the ballots closing. On Monday (September 5), we will know who among Conservative leaders Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss is the next PM of the UK.
In the initial stages of the contest, former Finance Minister Sunak was the top runner and his party voted resoundingly in his favour. But, as the voting reached the national level, Truss emerged as the clear favourite to succeed Boris Johnson as leader of the ruling Conservative Party and UK PM.
How is the UK PM being chosen: The two finalists Sunak and Truss were elected by Conservative lawmakers after several rounds of voting. The final two candidates were then put to a vote of the full party membership across the country, which is about 180,000 people, by postal ballot.
The winner is decided after counting who got the most votes from party's members across the country. These party members make up less than 1% of the UK population.
The voting process: All the Conservative Party members who have joined the party on or before 3 June, 2022 were eligible to vote either by post or online.
Earlier the party members were going to vote twice, with only their second vote counted. But, fears of foreign interference led to the decision of one vote each by a member, reported BBC.
Who is winning? Most of the polls in the UK suggest that Liz Truss is going to win the contest.
"When the race first narrowed down to the final two, Truss was rated a 60-40 favourite to win, but the odds have continued to move in her favour," Matthew Shaddick, head of political markets at Smarkets told Bloomberg.
According to a report by The Economist, Truss is currently leading the race with an implied probability of 89.7%.
Why is Sunak not the favourite anymore? Considered a better public speaker, Sunak has come under fire for clinging to fiscal orthodoxy to tackle the economic crisis and also by his image as a wealthy technocrat, reported AFP.
Another reason why Truss is ahead in the race is the fact that the loyal base of Boris Johnson supporters blame Sunak's resignation as the Chancellor being the trigger point for Johnson's exit.
Know the candidates: Whoever is the winner among the two, the UK will either have first PM of colour or third woman PM.
Liz Truss: The 46-year-old MP from South West Norfolk worked as an accountant for Shell and Cable & Wireless and was Deputy Director of the right-of-centre Reform think tank before joining politics.
She ran unsuccessfully for Parliament twice before being elected to represent the eastern England seat of South West Norfolk in 2010. Truss was once opposed to Brexit but under Johnson's government, she started supporting the idea of leaving the European Union.
Rishi Sunak: The 42-year-old, if chosen, would become UK's first Prime Minister of colour. The MP for Richmond in Yorkshire first entered the UK Parliament in 2015 and quickly rose up the Conservative Party ranks. He became quite popular as a staunch Brexit supporter.
Sunak had co-founded a 1-billion-pound global investment firm and specialised in investing in small British businesses before he decided to enter into politics. In 2020, he became the chancellor of the exchequer, the most important UK Cabinet post.
General elections: After the new PM takes over, it is not mandatory for him/her to hold general elections immediately. But, there will be pressure on the PM from the public to hold the general elections and let the people decide who they want as their next leader.
According to a survey by Ipsos published in the Evening Standard, 51 per cent of adults in the UK support the idea of a general election in 2022. If the PM doesn't call for an early election, the next polls will be held in 2025 at the latest.