Hamas's attack on Israel isn't just about Palestine, they want a piece of Arab-Israeli normalisation too

Riding on the wave of Palestinian aspirations for freedom, Hamas' surprising weekend attack on Israel, which caught the Israeli government off guard, may extend beyond the conventional Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Initially, the assault on Israel may appear to be a response to Israel's ongoing oppression of the Muslim-Arab population in Palestine, Gaza, and the West Bank. Some may even perceive it as a reaction to Israel's incursion into Jerusalem's Al Aqsa Mosque compound, Islam's third holiest place of worship, in April 2023. There were also a few smaller clashes in May and July.

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The current timing and political dynamics in West Asia suggest a complex web of regional factors that often extend beyond the region. These factors include Arab-Israeli normalisation, the role of Iran, and the evolving political landscape in West Asia.

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Arab-Israel Normalisation: A thorn in the side

• Donald Trump brokered the Abraham Accords of 2020, which brought about normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab states, including Bahrain, Sudan, the UAE and Morocco have been a landmark development in the West Asia
• Saudi Arabia, in particular, was also rumoured to be on the verge of formalising its relationship with Israel. Crown Prince MBS even once said that they were in talks with Israeli stakeholders.

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• However, Hamas saw this as a threat, and the recent well-coordinated attack aimed to disrupt the progress toward regional peace and put a spanner in the works.
• From the looks of it, it may seem that only Hamas stood at a disadvantage point. But, there is another regional player who doesn't want this to go through.
• It's the 'Shia Iran' who thinks the normalisation would unite two of Iran's main rivals, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and undermine its influence in the region.
• With the changing dynamics in the region, Hamas which views itself as an administrative authority and a legitimate player, just wants a share of the pie of the wealth that would flow in after trade and commerce-induced economic development among the countries flourish.

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Iranian sponsorship and diversion

• Iran has long been a key player in the West Asia, and even if it is not, wants to assert its dominance in the region. has been supporting groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, al-Ashtar Brigades and Saraya al-Mukhtar.
• The recent attack is seen as a way for Iran to divert international attention from its domestic challenges and exert its influence by backing Hamas.
• The U.S. decision to release frozen funds to Iran, though unrelated, has raised concerns about how these funds might indirectly end up being used.

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Hezbollah's intertwined

• There is a broader regional response to the situation as well.
• While some Arab nations have refrained from overtly supporting Hamas, the attack has undoubtedly ignited sentiments for Israel across the region.
• Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese group with close ties to Iran, declared its support for Hamas and has been engaged in cross-border attacks, hinting at a potential regional escalation.

Israel's challenges

• As Israel grapples with multiple challenges, like political backlash against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his far-right stance, and mishandling of the Judiciary. Likewise, it faces several dilemmas.

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• On the one hand, it needs to neutralise Hamas and deter its enemies. On the other hand, Israel must play safe to get its citizens back who have been held hostage by Hamas.
• And, in order to do so, it must be cautious not to alienate international support by conducting heavy-handed military operations which have shown violations of human rights time and again.

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Thus, Hamas' attack on Israel is not merely a localized conflict but a symptom of the evolving geopolitical landscape in West Asia.