Erdogan is President of Turkey, once again. What do these 20 years of his rule mean for Europe?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the man who has dominated the Turkish politics for 20 years, has won the reelection, extending his rule in the country till 2028.

69-year-old Erdogan won the Presidency with 52.14% of votes on Sunday (May 28) in the runoff election. His main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 47.86%, with 99.43% of all ballots counted.

Turkey had to go for a runoff election as during the voting on May 15 neither Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu were able to win the required 50% of the votes.

 

'Turkish century'

After the victory, Erdogan, in his two speeches in Istanbul and one in Ankara, thanked the nation for entrusting him with the Presidency for five more years and said that "the only winner today is Turkey".

Erdogan promised to work hard for Turkey's second century, which he calls the "Turkish century." The country marks its centennial this year. "We hope to be worthy of your trust, as we have been for 21 years," he told his supporters.

Erdogan also ridiculed his rival for his loss by saying "bye bye bye, Kemal," as supporters booed.

20 years of Erdogan: A timeline

1994: Erdogan is elected mayor of Istanbul.
1998: He gets banned from politics for four years for reciting a poem that was seen as insulting Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Republic of Turkey.
2001: Founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
2002: His party wins majority in general election. Erdogan becomes Prime Pinister.
2003: Turkey joins the US-led invasion of Iraq.
2004: Turkey begins accession talks with the European Union.
2007: AKP wins a second term in government.
2008: Turkey's economy suffers a major financial crisis.
2011: Turkey intervenes in the Syrian Civil War.

2013: Gezi Park protests erupt in Istanbul.
2014: Erdogan is elected President.
2015: AKP wins a third term in government.
2016: A coup attempt is launched against Erdogan's government.
2017: Erdogan gets more power after a constitutional referendum is held.
2018: Erdogan's part wins a fourth term in government.
2019: Turkey launches a military offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
2020: Turkey is hit by a major economic crisis.
2021: Turkey's relations with the United States and the European Union deteriorate.
2022: Turkey invades northern Syria in an attempt to create a safe zone for Syrian refugees.
2023: Erdogan wins a fifth term in government after a runoff vote.

Erdogan maybe a controversial figure and even divisive at times. He has also been accused of authoritarianism, corruption, and human rights abuses. But despite all of this, he has been the most dominant political figure in Turkey in the last few decades.

There are several reasons which makes Erdogan such a popular figure in Turkey:

Conservative values: Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has its roots in Islamic conservatism and this ideology has resonated with a significant portion of the Turkish population. A significant population in the country still holds conservative values and desire a greater emphasis on Islamic principles in public life.

Erdogan's policies most of the times have that aligned with these values. He has lifted restrictions on religious expression and promoting conservative social policies.In July 2020, Erdogan announced that Hagia Sophia, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in Istanbul, would be converted back into a mosque.

Economic growth: Under Erdogan's leadership, Turkey experienced a period of strong economic growth. The economy grew by an average of 5 per cent per year between 2002 and 2013, and unemployment fell from 14 per cent to 9 per cent.

His government implemented various economic reforms, attracting foreign investment and promoting infrastructure development which resulted in a rise in living standards for many Turks, particularly in urban areas, and this contributed to his popularity.

Nationalist sentiments: Other than standing for conservative values, one more thing that has made Erdogan such a huge political figure is his ability to tap into the Turkish nationalism.

Nationalism has always played a significant role in Turkish politics, and Erdogan has emphasized the protection of Turkish national interests and taken a firm stance on issues such as the Kurdish conflict, territorial disputes, and the role of Islam in society.

Strong image: Erdogan has always projected himself as a strong, decisive and charismatic leader, and has effectively utilized media to connect with supporters. Erdogan's restrictions on media freedom and suppression of opposition voices have limited the ability of dissenting voices to challenge his narrative, consolidating his hold on power.

What does Erdogan's victory mean for Turkey and Europe?

Erdogan's victory is not just a significant development for Turkey but also Europe. Relations between Erdogan and the European Union have become highly strained in last few years after the EU froze Turkey's accession negotiations in 2018 over democratic concerns which included  human rights violations and curbing of media freedom in the country.

Close ties with Russia: Leading members of NATO, to which Turkey also belongs, have expressed alarm at Erdogan's close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and concern that Turkey is being used to bypass sanctions on Moscow, reported Reuters.

In 2017, Erdogan had brokered a deal worth $2.5 billion with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the S-400 mobile surface-to-air missile system. The S-400 system is said to pose a risk to the NATO alliance as well as the America's F-35. This led to the Trump administration imposing sanctions on Turkey.

Erdogan has also said that Turkey still intended to buy a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia, a move that annoyed other NATO members.

Erdogan's political relationship with Putin the country's economic ties with Russia will likely continue, and this will further deteriorate his relation with the West.

A more Islamic and divided Turkey: Erdogan's victory is also means that we are going to see a more Islamic Turkey. The Turkish leader has been a strong advocate for Islamic values, and his victory is likely to see him further promote Islamic law and culture in Turkey.

Not only that, Erdogan's victory also means a more divided Turkey because his rival Kilicdaroglu, a secular leader, got 44.9 per cent votes. Which means that it was not a major win and the country was split in its decision.

Tensions with the West: Erdogan has been a vocal critic of the West, and his victory is likely to embolden him to take a more assertive stance on a number of issues, including the Syrian civil war, the Kurdish issue, and relations with the European Union.

This might further alienate Turkey from the West. Erdogan's victory could make it more difficult for Turkey to cooperate with the West on a number of issues, including security, trade, and counterterrorism.