Predicting the Oscars Part 1: The Technical categories

Hollywood's biggest night is right around the corner, and film fans around the world are buzzing with excitement. The 95th Academy Awards ceremony promises to be a memorable one, with a lineup of critically acclaimed movies vying for the coveted golden statuettes.

As always, predicting the winners in each category is a challenge, but that's part of the fun. Will the big award go to a beloved blockbuster, an indie darling, or a dark horse surprise? Will there be any upsets or snubs? Only time will tell, but we're here to make our best educated guesses.

To learn more about how we go about our Oscar predictions every year, have a look at: How To Win An Oscar

Whether you're a seasoned awards show watcher or a casual moviegoer, you won't want to miss this. Get ready for an evening of glitz, glamour, and probably a bunch of surprises. For this first segment of Oscar Predictions, we’re diving into our predictions for the Technical categories. We'll break down each category and highlight the top contenders: 

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water, with its impressive record of victories in the realm of visual effects, is poised to effortlessly triumph at the upcoming awards ceremony. Having dominated at the BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Visual Effects Society (VES) awards with an unprecedented nine wins out of 14 nominations - losing only when competing against itself - anything short of a resounding victory would be a seismic upset.

Here are my final predictions:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (WINNER)
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet On The Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Costume Design

With BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild (CDG) accolades under its belt, Elvis appears to be the leading contender in this category. In the past decade, the same film has clinched both the Costume Design and Production Design awards four times, with a three-year streak from 2013-2015 and again in 2018 for Black Panther. Yet, there is no consistent historical pattern to rely on to predict whether Elvis or Babylon will sweep both awards, although either could emerge victorious.

Surprisingly, Everything Everywhere All At Once secured a nomination and is among the best films of the year. Shirley Kurata's costume designs, featuring time and universe-jumping looks, showcase a remarkable range that could appeal to voters seeking a sweep.

Here are my final predictions:

1. Elvis (WINNER)
2. Babylon
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

I think there are only two ways this will go and it’s either Elvis or The Whale. Both are Makeup and Hair Stylists guild (MUAH) winners, both feature complicated weight suits and both have top Best Actor contenders.

The Whale is not nominated for Best Picture, further weakening its stance. Not by that much though, the makeup effects in the film are more advanced than that of Elvis or The Batman, which also utilizes significant weight suits and makeup.

Here are my final predictions:

1. Elvis (WINNER)
2. The Whale
3. All Quiet On The Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Original Song

In recent election cycles, popular music icons such as Lady Gaga, Elton John, H.E.R., and Billie Eilish have captured the attention of voters. While there is a possibility of an upset victory by Rihanna or Gaga, it appears that the momentum is favoring the success of "Naatu Naatu," and audiences are eagerly anticipating its performance on the show.

Ever since India failed to select RRR as their submission for the International Feature Film Oscar, efforts have been made to promote the film's show-stopping musical number "Naatu Naatu" for the prestigious award. With accolades from both the Critics' Choice and Golden Globe ceremonies under its belt, "Naatu Naatu" has emerged as the leading contender for the coveted Oscar, solidifying its frontrunner status.

Here are my final predictions:

1. Naatu Naatu (RRR) (WINNER)
2. Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
3. This Is A Life (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
4. Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
5. Applause (Tell It Like A Woman)

Best Production Design

In the race for Production Design, all eyes are on Babylon. Boasting accolades from the Art Directors Guild (ADG), BAFTA, and Critics' Choice, this film appears to be the one to beat.

While there are whispers that the upcoming film, Elvis, could potentially challenge Babylon's frontrunner status, it is difficult to overlook the sheer scale and attention to detail that Babylon brings to the table. Set in 1920s Hollywood, the film's recreation of the era is a feast for the senses, with the 'first day on a Hollywood set' sequence particularly standing out. The intricate portrayal, featuring Margot Robbie and Diego Calva navigating a multitude of min-sets all filming simultaneously, is simply too impressive to ignore.

Here are my final predictions:

1. Babylon (WINNER)
2. Elvis
3. All Quiet On The Western Front
4. The Fabelmans
5. Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Score

Since 1999, when the Original Score category merged into one, after four years of being split between comedy and dramatic scores and long after the age of song scores and adapted scores, an Oscar-winning score has most often come from a Best Picture nominee.

One big thing in Hurwitz’s favor is that, during this same period (from 1999 to 2021), only one film has ever won the Original Score Oscar without a Golden Globe nomination first: 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel from Alexandre Desplat, who bested the Golden Globe winner (Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything). Both films were nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.

But All Quiet on the Western Front’s intimidating presence with Volker Bertelmann’s evocative BAFTA-winning score feels like the perfect storm. Combined with its Sound nomination it got (which Babylon didn’t), we could have a winner. 

Here are my final predictions:

1. All Quiet On The Western Front (WINNER)
2. Babylon
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelamans

Best Cinematography

Mandy Walker, the cinematographer behind Elvis, has just broken through a significant barrier in the film industry. Walker has become the first woman to ever win the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) award for a feature film. Additionally, she joins an exclusive club of only three women to have ever been nominated for the Best Cinematography Oscar, alongside Rachel Morrison for 2017's Mudbound and Ari Wegner for 2021's The Power of the Dog.

Despite some impressive wins for All Quiet on the Western Front at the BAFTA and British Society of Cinematographers awards, as well as Netflix's relentless campaigning, it appears that the film may now face some stiff competition from Walker's groundbreaking work.

It is worth noting that the last three ASC winners have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Cinematography, but All Quiet on the Western Front was not even nominated by the ASC. Interestingly, the last time a non-English language film won the Oscar for Best Cinematography without first being nominated by the ASC was in 2006, with Guillermo del Toro's Pan's Labyrinth.

Here are my final predictions:

1. All Quiet On The Western Front (WINNER)
2. Elvis
3. Empire of Light
4. TAR
5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths 

Best Sound

In recent years, the Film Editing and Sound Oscars have been closely linked, despite the Sound category previously comprising two distinct subcategories - editing and mixing. This connection has resulted in a remarkable streak in modern times.

However, this year presents a unique opportunity to break this streak, and there are several potential ways this could happen. Only two films have received nominations for both Film Editing and Sound - Elvis and a grand action film Top Gun: Maverick.

Both films have already garnered accolades from the esteemed Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) guild, while Top Gun has also claimed the prestigious Cinema Audio Society (CAS) award, besting nominees such as All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, and The Batman. Although, Everything Everywhere All At Once earned nominations for both CAS and three MPSE awards, it failed to secure a win in any of these categories and ultimately missed out on an Oscar nomination.

Though ACE Drama still has the best track record, with 13 winners winning the Oscar since 2000, the BAFTAs gave us winners like Whiplash, Hacksaw Ridge and Ford v Ferrari without an ACE win, which could possibly shut Maverick out altogether.

Here are my final predictions:

1. All Quiet On The Western Front (WINNER)
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Film Editing

In the realm of film editing, Everything Everywhere All At Once has emerged as a leading contender, garnering accolades from various precursors. This movie earned the BAFTA and Critics' Choice awards over Top Gun and Elvis, as well as the American Cinema Editors (ACE) award for comedy. Meanwhile, Top Gun: Maverick took home the ACE award for drama. Interestingly, All Quiet on the Western Front, much like Everything Everywhere All At Once in the Sound category, failed to secure a major nomination at the Oscars, which effectively annihilated any chances for it to win Best Picture altogether.

Here are my final predictions:

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once (WINNER)
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TAR