Exit polls 2017: BJP is forming the next government in Uttarakhand

After a particularly tumultuous year of political uncertainty, Uttarakhand is likely to have a definitive tilt towards the BJP, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predictions. This, after accusations of horse trading, ruckus in the state Assembly floor and even the death of a horse Shaktiman in April last year, is an indication of Narendra Modi’s impact and the severe anti-incumbency against Harish Rawat-led Congress.

Uttarakhand voted in a single phase on February 15 and had recorded a 68 per cent voter turnout. Even the post-poll scenario has been dramatic, with sitting CM Harish Rawat levelling accusations of money power and corruption at the BJP.

Seat share

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts that the BJP will take home about 46-53 seats, while the Congress will be reduced to 12-21 seats in the 70-seat Assembly.  The BSP may get 1-2 seats, while others can get 1-4 seats.

Vote share

BJP has a comfortable lead in the vote share as well, claiming 43 per cent of the votes cast, while Congress has a vote share of 34 per cent. BSP has got about 8 per cent of the votes, while 15 per cent has gone to others.

Region wise vote share

BJP has dominated the Garhwal region and inched ahead Kumaon, claiming 30 out 41 in the former, while bagging 16 out of 29 seats in the latter. But the vote share in Kumaon, which consists of Almora, Nainital, Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Udham Singh Nagar, etc has been closer, with BJP getting about 42 per cent and Congress inching very close at 39 per cent.

Not so in Garhwal, comprising Dehradun, Haridwar, Chamoli, Rudraprayag, Tehri Garhwal, Uttarkashi, etc, where there is a significant difference.

Key points:

Congress

It’s anti-incumbency owing to corruption, high rate of unemployment, mismanagement of the flood and landslide situations, that has been the decisive factor for the Congress rout in Uttarakhand.

Moreover, mass defections to the BJP have also dented the Congress’ image, as has CM Rawat’s repeated failures to hold on to the electorate.

.@BJP4India & @INCIndia seem to be holding the ground in #UttarakhandWatch full #ExitPoll2017 here: https://t.co/4fqxBWbTYl pic.twitter.com/ZdxLNgzJX1

— India Today (@IndiaToday) March 9, 2017

BJP

It’s basically the alignment with the Centre that has tilted the election in BJP’s favour in Uttarakhand. After a particularly riotous last year, the state hopes to make the gains by avoiding Centre-State collisions which were the staple of 2016.

Uttarakhand is in dire need of central funds without which much of the rehabilitation efforts have been stuck.

Demonetisation seemed to have worked in favour on Narendra Modi, and helped BJP win big time.

Also read - People of Uttarakhand will choose Congress. BJP has betrayed them