Why we cannot rule out an SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh
If some exit polls are to be believed, we are going to see a BJP government in Uttar Pradesh. The problem is that exit polls have turned out to be unreliable most times. Universalising answers based on a small sample is only part of the problem. At times, the sample itself is not representative, which can lead to huge biases in results.
Moreover, voters are human beings and they cannot be expected to be truthful all the time. Pollsters who have very nearly written the political obituary of Mayawati might be forced to revisit their sampling techniques tomorrow. In all probability, BSP will get many more seats than what the exit polls are predicting.
The electoral chances of BJP, BSP and SP-Congress are still open. Most astute observers having their feet on the ground are still saying that Uttar Pradesh will have a hung Assembly. If this assessment is correct, then there will be extensive parleys between political formations to cobble up a coalition in order to bid for state power.
The BJP has in the past allied with the BSP and some commentators are not ruling out the possibility this time also. They have argued that since the SP and the BSP are arch-enemies, there is no way they can come together for a post poll alliance. They argue that this enmity runs deep and is of a personal nature, reminding us of the time when a resurgent Mayawati had to lock herself up at the Lucknow guest house fearing the goons of SP.
They also argue that the pressure from their respective social bases (Yadavs versus Dalits) will be so great that the leaders of both SP and BSP will be wary of such an alliance. After all, both these social formations have been at historical loggerheads. Sociologically, it has been the dominant OBCs who have been the active oppressors of the Dalits.
All these arguments against a possible SP-BSP alliance are valid. But the new and changed political scenario in Uttar Pradesh should make us revisit some of these arguments. First, the attack on Mayawati happened nearly two decades ago. Twenty years is a very long time in politics. Much water has flown under the bridge since then.
Mayawati has experimented with various caste groups, including the Brahmins, which was unthinkable 20 years ago. Similarly, the SP has experimented with the Thakurs and the likes of Amar Singh in the party has made it ideologically more flexible. Down the years, both these political formations have become more pragmatic than ideological and it is in this sense that they will not be averse to the idea of forming a government together.
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| The 2014 elections, which gave the BJP a landslide, must be playing in the minds of the leaders of both SP and BSP. Photo: AP |
Second, Mayawati has been out of power for very long. It would make much sense for the party to be part of the government, directly or indirectly. Factoring in the empirical fact that she has given the most tickets to Muslims, there will be immense pressure on her not to align with the BJP. The only choice that she is left with is to actively consider an alliance with her rival political formation, the SP.
The changed political context within Uttar Pradesh is perhaps the most important reason why the SP-BSP alliance seems to be a possibility now. The 2014 elections, which gave Modi’s BJP a landslide, must be playing in the minds of the leaders of both SP and BSP.
Modi’s tsunami cannot be explained by any other reason but for the fact that large sections of "social justice party" voters were swayed by the charisma of Modi. Ever since, the BJP’s electoral strategy has been to actively woo the non-Jatav Dalits and the non-Yadav OBCs.
The lower backward classes like the Kurmis and Khushwahas, who did not benefit from the "Mandalisation" of politics in UP, have gravitated towards the BJP. Similarly, non-Jatav Dalits like the Khatiks (who have an economic rivalry with Muslim Qureishis), the Koris and the Nishads have had much to gain by joining the BJP, as the BSP was perceived to be working for the benefit of Jatavs only.
Traditionally, the SCs and lower OBCs have been the core supporters of BSP. But if a large number of them end up supporting the BJP, then Mayawati and BSP would be history. That shift was already apparent in 2014, and if the BJP comes to power now, the shift will be complete.
Thus, among all parties in the fray, this election is most crucial for the political fortune of BSP: whether it would remain relevant or be sent into political oblivion. Mayawati is too astute a politician not to realise this.
Even without Akhilesh Yadav’s overtures yesterday, Mayawati may well have been actively considering such an alliance herself in case of a hung verdict in Uttar Pradesh.