By wooing both Dalits and Muslims in UP, Owaisi hurting SP, BJP, Congress' prospects
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi's foray into Uttar Pradesh politics may have surprised some. But the ones who have watched his elevation from old Hyderabad politics to the national scene will know how adventurous the barrister has been in spreading out his party and ambitions over the last few years.
From contesting municipal elections in Maharashtra and Karnataka to Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Bihar, Owaisi has his agenda set for the Uttar Pradesh elections in 2017. Especially with his slogan "Jai Bheem Jai Meem", the AIMIM chief clearly wants Muslims and Dalits to join ranks which will allow the party get a semblance of power in the state.
It could be of worry for the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress if support for the AIMIM swells within the target groups ahead of the elections. Owaisi's party may leave a huge dent in their vote banks, even if it doesn't win many seats all by itself.
Political activity in Uttar Pradesh in the last few months has revealed the strategy that Owaisi has adopted for making inroads into politics in the state. Unperturbed by allegations of being a B-team of the BJP, the AIMIM chief fielded 50 candidates in 18 districts for the zila panchayat elections held in November last year.
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| SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav with UP CM Akhilesh Yadav. (PTI) |
The party emerged victorious on four seats. Two from Balrampur and one each from Azamgarh and Muzaffarnagar. This was noticed and acknowledged as a reasonably good performance by the AIMIM considering that the party had been active in the state for less than a year before the elections.
The choice of candidates was also something that did not escape people's attention. Out of the 50 candidates fielded by the AIMIM in panchayat polls, 18 were Hindus, something that in a way, helped the party shed its tag of being a party of Muslims.
Once he forayed into Uttar Pradesh, Owaisi has been consistently experimenting with the Dalit-Muslim combination. For the February 2016 by-poll in Faizabad's Bikapur constituency he fielded a Dalit youth leader, Pradeep Kori.
Although the AIMIM candidate stood fourth, marginally behind the BJP candidate, two public meetings by Owaisi during the Faizabad campaign made quite a flutter in the area. Also Owaisi's choice of issues concerning Dalits made his strategy quite clear.
Lashing out at the BJP government at the Centre for having an upper caste mindset, he brought up issues like Hyderabad University Dalit scholar Rohith Vemula's suicide and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat's statement calling for a rethink on reservations. "I believe Gandhi, Lohia and Patel are big leaders but I personally believe that Ambedkar was the most towering of all," Owaisi said at one of the public meetings trying to instantly strike a chord with the Dalit voters.
Owaisi, however, mindful of his following in Muslim-dominated areas has not lost focus on consolidating the party's vote bank there. The AIMIM in its campaign is strategically targeting all such areas in eastern Uttar Pradesh which are Muslim dominated.
Owaisi enjoys a large following among Muslim youth which was evident in the way he was received recently by party workers in the entire eastern Uttar Pradesh belt, starting from Faizabad, moving towards Azamgarh, en route Gonda, Balrampur, Siddharth Nagar, Khalilabad, Basti and Ambedkarnagar. The choice of places where Owaisi planned to stop and meet party workers lays bare the barrister's Uttar Pradesh game plan. The Muslim population in most of these places either compares with that of the Hindus or is at least more than half of what the Hindu numbers are.
Owaisi chooses to be categorical in his attack on the ruling the SP and BJP during his closed-door meetings with party supporters.
"Samajwadi Party government must tell the people why they denied permission for my rallies for close to 20 times. Are they scared of me?" Owaisi said in one such meeting.
He repeatedly mocks the SP for fooling the minorities by making false promises, be it on getting reservation for Muslims, jobs or giving them security.
In fact, at every available opportunity, Owaisi strikes at the very roots, making it emotional for the listeners. "Maulana Mulayam promised 18 per cent reservation for Muslims. He must be asked how many Muslims he has given jobs to. Do you know how many Muslims UP Police has? Less than two per cent sub inspectors and ever fewer constables. But you'll find Akhilesh Yadavs and Mulayam Yadavs in all police stations."
In between, he makes direct and personal attacks on SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, alleging them of teaming up with the BJP. His jibes are unlike what the Congress or the BSP had ever directed at the SP.
"Why did Mulayam invite Narendra Modi, the man responsible for Gujarat carnage, to attend a marriage ceremony at his place? All his family members were busy clicking selfies with the PM," roared Owaisi in one of his speeches at Bikapur. "There will be no baap-bete ki sarkar in 2017," he said with conviction on another such occasion.
Owaisi's strategy has not escaped the eyes of the ruling SP government. Perhaps that is why it not just denied Owaisi permission to hold public rallies earlier but also refused to allow him access to Azamgarh on the first day of his east Uttar Pradesh tour last weekend.
The administration there cited communal disturbance in the Mubarakpur area of the district to refuse him permission to enter the city limits. No wonder Azamgarh, with its sizeable Muslim population, is perceived to be important for Owaisi's entry to Uttar Pradesh politics.
However, Azamgarh has been a place from where Mulayam is an MP. So Owaisi's foray in Azamgarh is a prestige issue for the SP. Especially with several small parties like Peace Party, Ulema Council and the Qaumi Ekta Dal already making a dent in SP's vote bank, Owaisi's entry in Azamgarh will be the last thing that the SP would want.
Interestingly, Owaisi in his public utterances does not speak a word against the BSP or its chief Mayawati. It is a positioning that has repeatedly fuelled speculation on the BSP's possible alliance with the AIMIM.
Senior BSP leader and leader of opposition in Uttar Pradesh Assembly Swamy Prasad Maurya, however, brushes it aside saying there is no question of an alliance with any party at this stage. On Owaisi's slogan "Jai Bheem Jai Meem" he says, "Our slogan will remain Jai Bhim Jai Bharat. Any other party or leader may coin whatever slogan suits them. This doesn't affect our poll strategy."
The SP, on the other hand, accuses the AIMIM chief of fanning communal feelings with an eye on political gains. Uttar Pradesh minister and SP spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary says, "Akhilesh Yadav's fear that this year will prove to be a year for conspiracies is coming true. People from as far as Gujarat and Hyderabad are coming to sow seeds of communalism in UP."
Taking a dig at the BJP and AIMIM at the same time, he further says, "The BJP is in a fix in UP. Since it has no future here, it has teamed up with a leader from Hyderabad. Both their politics sustains on communal polarisation."
Congress spokesperson Akhilesh Pratap Singh levels a similar allegation on Owaisi. He says: "The Owaisis are one with the BJP. In fact, their only agenda is to support the BJP by cutting into the vote bank of the weak and deprived and harm secular parties like the Congress."
So even with the recent debacle in Bihar elections, where the AIMIM stumbled on all six seats it contested, the party seems to be testing waters in minority and Dalit-dominated eastern Uttar Pradesh before Owaisi embarks on a tour of the western part of the state.
Decision on the overall candidates to be declared for the 2017 polls will likely follow. But with the Uttar Pradesh government denying him entry to Azamgarh, it has at least given Owaisi a platform to mount his next poll campaign from; most likely by accusing the young chief minister for selectively targeting him.
So while Owaisi might be seen as playing victim in Uttar Pradesh politics, everything seems to be falling in place "politically" for the barrister, at least for now.