5 reasons Sheila Dikshit won't click as Congress' CM candidate for UP

The Congress declaring former Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit its chief ministerial candidate for Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections at best can be described as a desperate move by the party. The Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha and party's in charge of Uttar Pradesh, Ghulam Nabi Azad, may have in mind the possible support of the 13 per cent Brahmin votes in UP as a consequence of picking Dikshit for the forthcoming state polls.

But the "grand old party" faces a daunting task, and here's why:

1. Outsider tag

Dikshit will be always considered alien to Uttar Pradesh's cut-throat and rugged caste-based politics. She has spent her life courting and being courted by Lutyens' Delhi. Though she has some old UP connections, Delhi is what she is identified with, having been one of its longest serving and the second woman chief ministers (she served for 15 years, from 1998 to 2013, that is three consecutive terms).

However, to her credit, she had been the Lok Sabha MP from Kannauj, UP between 1984 and 1989, serving as the Union minister of state in the PMO of then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. It is obvious that she would remind the voters of her strong UP connections.

Her father-in-law, Uma Shankar Dikshit, also from UP, was the Union home minister in the 1970s.

But in the chaotic world of breaking news, such old stories may not cut the ice, at least in politics. Rivals are likely, therefore, to use the "outsider" tag to describe Dikshit and score brownie points at her expense.

2. Congress' desperation

If the Congress, assisted by shrewd political strategist Prashant Kishor, wanted this "out-of-the-box" move to be seen for what it is, the party may be in for a big surprise.

More than a novel idea, this "power move" is most likely going to be viewed as a desperate step by the party. The voters would certainly expect a fresh face, without any past baggage, and all that they would get is the much too familiar Dikshit.

This would also go on to demonstrate the utter paucity of good CM candidates within the Congress stable.

3. Spent force

Dikshit is way past the phase when she had genuine political charm.

The Congress has already received a humiliating drubbing in the Delhi Assembly elections in December 2013, with her as the incumbent CM. To add insult to injury, the Congress had won just eight of the 70 seats.

Almost on the verge of seriously considering retirement from politics, Dikshit was accommodated as the governor of Kerala by UPA 2 in March 2014 - just before the last Lok Sabha elections were announced.

She tendered her resignation in August, after the Narendra Modi government came to power.

Soon after resigning as Kerala governor, she had refused to comment whether she intended returning to active politics. "I can't comment on this now," she had said then.

Those words are likely to come back and haunt her now, when her next serious stint in a territory as politically volatile as Uttar Pradesh is about to commence. She is likely to be seen as a reluctant politician, who a spent force, now being recycled in Uttar Pradesh.

4. Corruption charges

Though Dikshit may be considered an efficient administrator, her stint as Delhi CM is marred with corruption charges. She had lost in 2013 because she had lost the battle of perception. She had failed to even secure her Assembly seat, losing to debutant Arvind Kejriwal.

Dikshit's name is associated with at least two multi-crore scams - the 2010 Commonwealth Games and Delhi Jal Board's water tanker scheme.

Just hours before the announcement of her name as Congress's UP CM candidate, the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) issued notice to her asking her to join probe in the Rs 400-crore water tanker scam. The Congress' image will take a further beating if she is interrogated in the midst of election process.

Rs. 400 cr #Water Tanker Scam: ACB issues notice to former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit asking her to join investigation. pic.twitter.com/igPtFQRN0n

— All India Radio News (@airnewsalerts) July 14, 2016

The former Delhi CM is already facing charges in the CWG scam. The ACB had lodged an FIR under Prevention of Corruption Act and other provisions against the former chief minister in February 2014 in a streetlight project scam relating to CWG.

She and her then cabinet colleague Rajkumar Chauhan have been accused of colluding with officials of the PWD, civic bodies, contractors and vendors to make illegal gains and causing a loss of Rs 31.07 crore to the exchequer.

5. Age factor

At 78, Dikshit will be the oldest chief ministerial candidate in the UP elections. She will be pitted against the 43-year-old incumbent chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and 60-year-old Mayawati, the Bahujan Samaj Party supremo.

In all likelihood, the BJP will project someone much younger than Dikshit. At a time when all parties are wooing the youth, Dikshit will only be prove a dampener for the Congress.

What worked?

Only two factors seem to have tilted the scale in Dikshit's favour - her Brahmin caste and gender.

But the Congress may hardly derive any advantage as the BSP now seems to be favourite among the Brahmins, whom the BJP, too, is actively wooing. 

Union micro, small and medium enterprises minister, Kalraj Mishra, who is a Lok Sabha MP from Deoria in eastern UP, has been retained though he turned 75 - an age bar to be in Modi ministry - on July 1. On the other hand, his cabinet colleague, Najma Heptulla, resigned because she was over 76 years of age. Mishra remains in Modi ministry because he holds considerable influence among the Brahmins in eastern UP. His caste brethren might have been antagonised had he been dropped just before the elections.

Despite the desertions from its ranks in the last few weeks, the BSP, led by Mayawati, is still the frontrunner. Moreover, the BJP may project Union textile minister Smriti Irani as its chief ministerial candidate. The Congress, too, wants to get its share of women voters by making Dikshit as its CM face.

This leads to the next pertinent point.

Dikshit's projection is an alibi to make her a scapegoat in the (almost certain) event of Congress' defeat.

She is likely to be "Congress' Kiran Bedi", who was projected by the BJP as Delhi's chief ministerial candidate in the 2015 Assembly elections. The BJP's defeat (it had won only three of the 70 seats) was blamed on her.

The Congress is likely to engage its president Sonia Gandhi's daughter Priyanka Gandhi throughout the state for the first time.

So far, she has not campaigned outside the constituencies of her mother in Rae Bareli and brother Rahul Gandhi's in Amethi. If the Congress performs well, the credit will go to Priyanka. But if it fails to improve its tally (in the 403-member UP Assembly, it had won 25 seats in 2002, 22 in 2007 and 28 in 2012) the blame will be squarely placed on Dikshit.