Exit polls 2017: Congress returning in Punjab, AAP a close second

If there is a state that is going against the overall political mood in the country, it is Punjab. The bitterly fought battle for the 117-seat Punjab Assembly isn’t going to end well for the incumbent Akali-BJP combine, as issues like corruption, youth unemployment, drug menace and crop loss become reasons why it gets voted out this time around.

Seat share

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts a return of the Congress under the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh. Our exit poll gives 62-71 seats to the Congress party, while the newcomers AAP would be getting about 42-51 seats.

It is going to be a complete annihilation of the BJP-SAD (Siromani Akali Dal) ruling alliance, as it would be left with only about 4-7 seats, a very sad situation indeed. 

Vote share

As far as the vote share is concerned, once again the Congress has the biggest share at 36 per cent, while AAP has a decent 33.5 per cent, making it a worthy political adversary for the Congress. The vote share for the BJP-Akali combine has come down drastically, and currently hovers at about 17 per cent.

Region wise vote share

AAP performed really well in the Malwa region, while doing reasonably well in both Doaba and Majha areas. The Congress retains a comfortable lead in Majha and Doaba at 48 per cent and 38 per cent respectively. The vote share margin is really split between AAP and Congress, and it is quite obvious that the new sitting opposition in Punjab is going to be the Aam Aadmi Party.

Key points:

Congress

Captain Amarinder Singh: Congress has done extremely well in the Punjab polls because of its cool and level-headed campaigning by its lodestar Captain Amarinder Singh. His leadership and presence made a big impact, which is evident in the big margin Congress got in Doaba and Majha regions.

Sidhu: Even though the entry of Navjot Singh Sidhu was extremely controversial, given his exit from the BJP and falling apart with AAP, he has proved to be a trump card for the Congress party.

AAP

As expected, Arvind Kejriwal’s campaigning and constant presence of leaders like Bhagwant Mann helped AAP in Malwa region, as well as in Doaba, but less so in Majha.

Losing Sidhu proved costly, even though the youth vote went largely to AAP. Removing Sucha Singh Chhotepur also wasn’t a clever call.

BJP-Akali combine

The Parkash Singh Badal government and their ally in the BJP have got a huge thumbs down from the voters. Governing Punjab like a family fiefdom and extreme nepotism, corruption at the expense of welfare have cost the Badals the state of Punjab.

Also read - Why Punjab's 2017 vote might be a referendum on Akali Dal