Kejriwal has only himself to blame for AAP's mess in Punjab
From the time when the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was seen as a serious emergent force in Punjab with a real chance of securing majority in the assembly polls, the party's fortunes have taken a serious beating.
It will now have to stage a superlative strategy and make counter moves to not just stop the slide downward but also recover its position somewhat.
The possibility of AAP coming to power in Punjab stemmed from its surprising performance during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when the party bagged four seats in the state. More importantly, the party made significant inroads into the vote-share of the state's ruling SAD-BJP alliance as well as the opposition Congress.
The AAP polled 24.4 per cent of votes and this resulted in huge erosion in the popularity of the two parties. The share of the Congress dipped by 12.1 per cent to 33.1 per cent and the Akali vote fell by 7.6 per cent. Consequently, AAP was considered as the party of the future in the state.
After parties began making preparatory moves for the impending polls earlier this year, the AAP was considered a serious challenger to power for two reasons: massive anti-incumbent sentiment against the Akali-BJP alliance and the slapdash moves of the Congress.
Yet, there were doubts now whether the AAP, which has already begun imploding in Punjab, will hold its ground and not damage itself further.
By early this year, the strength of AAP's parliamentary party had been halved, with the party initiating action against two of its Lok Sabha members - Dharamvir Gandhi and former diplomat Harinder Singh Khalsa. Since then, AAP leaders have not helped their cause by pursuing grossly inopportune tactics.
In recent weeks, the ham-handed manner in which the matter of induction of Navjot Singh Sidhu and expulsion of Sucha Singh Chotepur was carried out, demonstrated that central leaders who were deputed to supervise polls in the state are not equipped to discharge their functions.
Both of them are now going to cause immense damage to AAP and the party has no one to blame but its poor understanding of the electoral and political reality of Punjab.
The problem that AAP faces in Punjab primarily stems from the nature of party chief Arvind Kejriwal's personality. I have often argued that the Delhi chief minister is quite like an altered image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi when viewed through a convex mirror.
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| Navjot Singh Sidhu is a big crowd-puller and has the capacity to damage any party’s prospects. (Photo credit: India Today) |
Very much a Chhota Modi, Kejriwal too believes in micro-managing every state and has an unrealistic assessment of his abilities and popularity.
Moreover, when the party was expanded in the run up the parliamentary polls, he took decisions without assessing long-term implications. Chotepur's association with the radicalised section of Sikh politico-religious leaders is well known. Admitting a person entrenched in politics for several decades also indicates one's readiness to accept the "ills" he would bring.
In conventional electoral politics in Punjab, like in other states, extra-political considerations have been the norm and not an exception. A moralistic position could have been acceptable to the people if Kejriwal had chosen not to abdicate the moral high ground where the entire leadership was positioned at the time of its formation.
But following one embarrassment after another rocking the party in Delhi, the sacking of Chotepur appeared less driven by idealism and more by personal considerations.
For a party which still projects itself as a messiah from outside, any action which humiliates local leaders would hardly be endorsed by the people. Similarly, though Sidhu may not have the capacity to be a runaway winner, he is surely a big crowd-puller and has the capacity to damage any party's prospects.
As of now, Kejriwal appears inclined to be opting for the Modi model of campaigning that he displayed with success in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, but one which came unstuck in Bihar.
In this model, as is known, Modi did not nominate a local leader as the BJP's chief ministerial candidate but promised rule by a proxy chief minister. After the washout in Bihar, Modi opted out of this style of campaign in Assam and with success.
Kejriwal does not appear keen to anoint anyone as the party's chief ministerial candidate because he does not wish to risk being diminished by that person.
He knows that if the AAP secures a majority with a chief ministerial face, he will emerge as a challenger because Punjab is a bigger territory than Delhi. Kejriwal is keeping his options open, shifting to Punjab and handing over Delhi to Manish Sisodia.
But with the probability of AAP forming a government in Punjab declining massively, the danger for Kejriwal is that he may end up damaging the prospects of the party in other states, Goa and Gujarat notably.
By behaving like the archetypal man in a hurry, Kejriwal has not done either his own image or that of his party's any good. His Punjab game plan faces the danger of ending as a damp squib. It remains to be seen if he can extricate himself from this morass.