Is Palaniswami rebelling against Sasikala?

It is not even a week since the new government headed by Edappadi K Palaniswami took charge in politically troubled Tamil Nadu and it seems all is not well in Team Sasikala. As predicted by yours truly the day he was elected the leader of the AIADMK legislature party, Palaniswami is a political heavyweight from western Tamil Nadu and Sasikala would make a mistake if she treated him like a doormat. Palaniswami has taken just five days to show that he is no pushover. 

The first and major indication of Sasikala and Palaniswami combo transforming into a Sasikala versus Palaniswami equation is that the mega reshuffle list of IAS and IPS officers has not been greenlighted by the chief minister. On Monday, when deputy general secretary TTV Dinakaran met his aunt Sasikala at Bengaluru central prison, he reportedly got the list of transfers cleared by her. According to sources in the bureaucracy, the list was prepared by someone close to the Sasikala family. This is a clear indication of the manner in which the Mannargudi clan wants to run the Palaniswami government, by backseat driving, ensuring its hand on the gears of power. 

But when the Sasikala-approved list was sent to CM, he refused to accept it. Because according to reliable sources, the reshuffle list mentioned that chief secretary Girija Vaidyanathan will be removed from her post. Vaidyanathan took over as the top bureaucrat of Tamil Nadu in December, after Income Tax raids on her predecessor Rammohana Rao. She is known to be a stickler for rules and a no-nonsense bureaucrat and perhaps that was the reason why despite being four batches senior to the 1985 batch Rao, she was overlooked for the top job by the Jayalalithaa regime.

Though the replacement K Shanmugam, who is at present Finance secretary, is considered a good officer, Palaniswami reportedly feels that shifting out Vaidyanathan would send the wrong signals at a time when the perception about his government is already at a low. Also Shanmugam, like Rao belongs to the 1985 batch and removing a senior officer like Vaidyanathan, in the CM's view, would harm his relations with the bureaucracy at a time he needs it most. 

In what will not be music to Sasikala's ears, a coterie of education minister KA Sengottaiyan, Fisheries minister D Jayakumar and Deputy Speaker of Lok Sabha Thambi Durai has been formed around Palaniswami and is calling the shots in consultation with each other. 

It is important to note that Palaniswami has not made the visit to Bengaluru prison to meet his leader. Most expected him to undertake the trip within a day of winning the trust vote. Instead, he has focused on following in Jayalalithaa's footsteps by announcing copycat welfare schemes. 

What could have emboldened Palaniswami not to look Bengaluru is the feedback from the ground. For someone who has been in politics for over three decades, it is an insult to be referred to as Sasikala's proxy at Fort St George. He knows the only way he can endear himself to the people of Tamil Nadu is by being his own man. 

Palaniswami also is aware that the Election Commission sword hangs over Sasikala's appointment as general secretary. Should the EC deem it null and void, it will kill two birds with one stone as even Sasikala's last minute decision to appoint Dinakaran as deputy general secretary would be quashed. 

The local body elections are also due to be held by May 14. And given the public antipathy towards Sasikala, there is a good chance that the ruling party will not fare too well; should that happen, a call to remove the non-performing asset from the party could gain momentum.

With members of the Panneerselvam camp appreciating his Amma-like decisions to provide sops to women, a rapprochement between Palaniswami and Panneerselvam too cannot be ruled out in the future. A non-Mannargudi AIADMK could then take shape.

However, the flip side is that if Palaniswami acts difficult, there is nothing to prevent Sasikala from fomenting trouble for him by asking her loyalist MLAs to ask for a change in leadership. Dinakaran whose ambitions of becoming a minister were thwarted by Governor Vidyasagar Rao by pointing to his economic offences cases, could make a bid for the top job with his aunt's blessings. 

Also Palaniswami being a seasoned politician would not want to burn his bridges with his party boss so soon, having seen how she crushed the Panneerselvam revolt and ensured her side won the trust vote. His defiance could well be to test the waters, his first move on the Tamil Nadu political chessboard. 

But can the bishop checkmate the queen? 

Also read - I feel my stand (not swearing VK Sasikala in as CM) has been vindicated by SC