Truth behind surgical strikes and India-Pakistan video games
On Tuesday, Indian additional director, public relations, (ADGPI), Major General Ashok Narula, released a statement accompanied by a video of Indian forces destroying a Pakistani post in the Nowshera sector of the Line of Control (LoC), an action resorted to about a fortnight ago.
This was a belated announcement and it was claimed that the aim of the operation was destruction of posts, which were abetting infiltration. Internationally, the message being sent across was that Indian patience was wearing thin and it is willing to escalate, unless Pakistan pulls back from its actions in the Valley.
The strike was immediately denied by the Pakistani director general, Inter Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), who claimed that no such incident occurred on May 13. Today, Pakistan released a video claiming that their forces had destroyed an Indian Army bunker along the LoC. This video has been challenged for authenticity by our Army.
A video game has now emerged, with both nations claiming success in their respective operations. A few issues need to be understood in this context. The LoC is always active, with each side seeking to gain ascendency over the other by fire and will power. Any laxity or an opportunity provided will always be exploited, the beheading incident being an example.
A strike by one could result in retaliation by the other. Hence, while one formation launches an offensive operation, the others are in defensive mode, seeking to counter any enemy action. The Indian strike was locally aimed as a counter action to the beheading, in addition to being a deterrent for infiltration.
It was conveying a message that posts which abet infiltration would face the same punishment. After all, a successful surgical strike, as done earlier, is always never possible. Pakistan was prepared and expecting it, hence had deployed their SSG personnel at posts.
The announcement of the strike was delayed by India for almost two weeks, solely with the aim of gauging the Pakistani response to it. If it was to respond immediately or soon thereafter, then border shelling would have become a regular feature and reports of the same would have been available.
The fact that it did not indicated that it had chosen to maintain silence. Releasing a video immediately after the Indian one leaves much in doubt. There is also a difference in the manner the armies of both countries operate and share information with their countryfolk. This would indicate how much each can be trusted for authenticity.
Indian democratic norms and free press policies ensure that Indian casualties can never be hidden from the public. There have been occasions when casualties have been high, whether it has been Uri, Nagrota or even Pathankot. The true figures and the conduct of last rites have always been in the public eye. The Army has accepted criticism whenever it has been found at fault.
Pakistan on the other hand has a reputation of not only hiding casualties, but also of refusing to accept their own, solely to save their image. In Kargil, it was Indian soldiers who buried their men belonging to the Northern Light Infantry (NLI). Post the surgical strike, where alongside terrorists, soldiers were killed, Pakistan refused to acknowledge, despite India claiming video recordings of the same. Terrorists were cannon-fodder; information of their deaths would never have been conveyed to their families. Hence, Pakistan’s denial is nothing new.
Logically, no nation can accept to be hit and not respond back, especially if a video of the fire assault has been placed in public domain. The video on YouTube would be visible to even its own citizens. Hence, it would need to show that it is capable of retaliating in equal measure.
Thus, Pakistan had to release a video of similar action. With the Indian military denying its authenticity, doubts remain. Further, Indian forces have always announced casualties due to Pakistani shelling. It happens regularly and is an accepted norm.
The doubt raised by the Army on Pakistan's video is genuine. Destruction of a post is normally by direct firing of weapons. The ammunition fired is visible in its trajectory until it hits the target, as was the case in the Indian strike and a similar one doing the rounds on social media earlier.
Without the visibility of a trajectory, a possibility remains of a non-operational bunker being blown up by explosives and claimed as destroyed by firing, as is the case of Pakistan's released video.
Irrespective of claims and counter claims, the LoC would become more active in the coming days. The tempo of firing would increase from both sides, targeting defensive positions and villages close to the border.
Each side would remain on high alert seeking an opportunity to inflict casualties and damage to the other. In all probability, the ceasefire agreement of 2004 would temporarily vanish into the sunset. It has happened before.
Simultaneously, reports of activation of Pakistani airbases are surfacing. This appears to be a precautionary measure with the intention of announcing that it is prepared for an escalation. Pulling back does not appear to be immediate.
The Indian government would take a call on the levels of escalation it could permit, however, within Pakistan, with an embattled PM at the head, it is their army chief who would decide.
As the summer wears on, infiltration attempts would increase and the LoC would remain hyper active. However, both sides would aim to keep the firing below the level of artillery duels, where India could have a distinct advantage and casualties of soldiers and civilians would rise.