Why no one is stopping North Korea from firing ballistic missiles
On September 15, North Korea fired another missile in the direction of Japan. As planned, the missile flew over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has decided to immediately meet to discuss this threat.
Now, it has almost become a pattern for the past few months that North Korea would launch a missile (on one occasion, even tested a nuclear/hydrogen bomb) and the entire world would criticise their action (particularly Japan, South Korea and the US).
Then the UNSC would meet to discuss the issue and threaten North Korea with sanctions. Immediately, China and Russia would claim that the sanctions have very limited impact.
There would be hectic lobbying in the UNSC meet and China/Russia would ensure that some watered-down sanctions would be imposed.
Then the UNSC would (almost proudly) announce that fresh sanctions have been imposed by a 15-0 vote against North Korea.
And probably, this gets followed by very harsh statements by North Korea like: they would launch an attack in the vicinity of Guam islands, where the US has a major military base or four main Japanese islands “should be sunken into the sea” by its nuclear bomb or the US will "suffer the greatest pain" over its role in bringing forth the latest sanctions on them.
This circle would get completed with North Korea conducting yet another missile test.
The recent North Korean missile was launched from the Sunan airfield, a location north of Pyongyang. The flight time for this missile was 17 minutes and it passed over Hokkaido, one of the main islands of Japan with a population of more than 5.5 million and landed some 1,200 miles to the east in the Pacific Ocean. The altitude and the distance this missile travelled is more than the earlier test when similarly a missile flew over Japan on August 29.
Just few days back as an act of brazen defiance against the Trump administration, North Korea has successfully conducted the sixth nuclear test. With this test, North Korea has demonstrated their capability to produce a hydrogen bomb. This "statement" by North Korea was very loud and clear, they expect that now the world (read US) should recognise them as a nuclear weapon state. However, the US and the UN responded with sanctions and now North Korea is responding all this with missile tests.
China is trying to ensure that sanctions should not lead to a point where North Korea would suffer so much it may lead to a breaking point. There is a general perception that China is not doing enough to stop North Korea. Is this perception correct?
It is important to verify before making China the punching bag that "is China really capable of stopping North Korea?". It is obvious that for China, a "problematic" North Korea is advantageous. It is something akin to the India-Pakistan problem. This problem keeps India occupied in South Asia.
Similarly, problematic North Korea, keeps the US engaged and this provides China more "space" in South China Sea region. At the same time, China is not keen to have any war erupting in North Korea. There is a fear that since, they share a border with them, there could be a major influx of refugees in their country.
Also, a failed North Korea would provide opportunities for the US to increase their presence in the region. Definitely, China is not keen to have the US presence in their close vicinity. China also needs North Korea for the supply of coal and other natural resources. In addition, North Korean cheap labour is a useful commodity.
The present situation in North Korea should not be to the liking of China. Because, now the situation has reached to the level of playing with fire. So how come China is not able to manage the show?
One reason for China not opting for very harsh sanctions like 100 per cent cut-off of oil supply, could possibly be that by doing this they would end up antagonising North Korea fully and in the bargain lose their influence on them totally.
Also, there is a remote possibility that Japan could go nuclear owing to the increased North Korean threat and naturally, this situation would not be in the interest of China. Hence, now it is very much necessary for China to keep North Korea engaged and not alienated. It appears that gagging China’s compulsions, North Korea has started taking China for granted, and unfortunately, China is not able to do much about it.
There is no clarity whether China has succeed towards establishing any backchannel diplomacy with North Korea. Around three years back, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un killed his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, who was considered to be the country’s second most-powerful person. He was the one who would have had good association with China and was known to have visited China a few times.
Probably, today China has no connect with any big leaders in North Korea (if there is anyone other than Kim). Possibly, China is not able to reach and influence Kim Jong-un. However, now the situation has reached to such a level that it is in China’s interest to find a way out of this mess.
The situation would remain extremely tense as long as North Korean missile launches do not fail to reach the predesigned targets.
If accidentally, they fail and land up somewhere either in South Korea or Japan then, nobody is sure about the future of the Korean peninsula.