No fluff, want Modi to talk straight with Obama this US visit
If what appear to be inspired leaks by South Bock that have appeared in certain newspapers are to be believed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will avoid hyperbole and elliptical diplomatese when he addresses the joint session of the US Congress on June 8.
It will be a matter-of-fact speech with some plain-speaking.
There is no reason to disbelieve these reports, though they have been clearly planted to generate attention on Modi's coming visit to the US. With popular interest in his foreign travels waning to the point of disinterest even among his supporters and mocking criticism replacing grudging praise by his critics, this would be deemed necessary.
It could be argued that a far better approach would be robust sharing of information. But that's not how the Lutyens' establishment prefers to function. Information is power. It is shared not for purposes of greater dissemination and wider public debate, but to reward obliging media persons by way of giving them a taste of this power.
Friendship
But let's not digress from the prime minister's summer visit to the US and his address to the Congress. This coincides with Modi's completion of two years in office after sweeping to power in the summer of 2014. The timing of the visit is likely coincidental.
Yet, it would be useful to remember that the US, having failed to foresee the folly of revoking his American visa a decade ago on account of the 2002 violence in Gujarat, was prompt in sensing that victory was his even before the votes had been counted in 2014.
If the freeze was bleakly icy, the thaw has been spectacular. Modi's first visit to the US as prime minister in the autumn of 2014 set the stage for subsequent visits. It also reset the tone and tenor of bilateral dialogue and interaction at all levels.
President Barack Obama's presence as the chief guest at last year's Republic Day parade and the pride of place accorded to Modi at this year's Nuclear Security Summit were more than reciprocal gestures of goodwill. They marked America's renewed interest in India and the blossoming of a personal friendship between Obama and Modi.
This backdrop, however, does not, or rather should not, determine the content and contour of bilateral relations. It is perfectly legitimate for the US to pursue goals specific to American national interest. It is equally legitimate for India to promote and protect its own national interests.
And, both countries would be right in leveraging the upswing in India-US relations as a means to achieving their respective ends. Hence, it would be a wasted opportunity if Modi were to indulge in waffle and meaningless niceties while addressing the US Congress. Friends speak openly, frankly and directly. They do not need to be either gratuitous or solicitous.
Recall Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to the US Congress last year. He repeatedly reiterated Israel's faith in the US as a friend and an ally of Israel; he concluded with "even if Israel has to stand alone, it will stand."
His message was not lost in the thunderous applause that followed. This is not to suggest a repeat performance. India is not Israel, nor does American support for India measure up to a fraction of what the US does for Israel. That's an entirely different relationship, to which we shall return later.
We are given to understand that Modi in his speech to the Congress will reposition India-US relations as those between equal partners with many common goals and several divergent views.
That would mark a departure from the previous BJP Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's assertion from the same podium that India and the US are natural allies with more in common than in difference.
Superpower
It would also mark a break from meaningless though grandiose declarations of the oldest and largest democracies working hand in hand, for minor mutual benefits and greater global gains.
Foreign policy should be less about vacuous morality and more about hard-nosed reality. The US still remains the world's sole superpower but it's only a matter of time before China emerges as the alternative pole.
As a countervailing force, the US needs India as much as India needs the US. America's need will escalate as India's economy grows and the growth outpaces that of China in the medium and long term.
India's security and economic needs can be met in large measure by the US. There would no doubt be conditions attached. The proposed India-US Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA) is not about rest and recreation for battle-weary American soldiers. Similarly, it is India which stands to gain from the US-India Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTII).
Expectations
Americans have their own expectations from both agreements, so do Indians. Modi should articulate those expectations and underscore our apprehensions too.
For instance, while there is unlikely to be popular opposition to LEMA, the vast majority of Indians would not want their country to become an offshore base for the US military. On DTTI, questions are being asked as to where the delivery is.
A third concern that needs to be flagged is China's expansionism in the Indian Ocean and Pacific. For an effective containment, if not a rollback, the US would have to move beyond platitudinous statements.
Last though not the least is the suddenly palpable shift in US policy towards the Indian subcontinent. The effective dehyphenation of India and Pakistan vis-à-vis American policy has witnessed a return to the past.
Obama's comment that both India and Pakistan must de-nuclearise was neither an off-the-cuff remark nor a subtle message. The return of hyphenation and tilt is to be seen elsewhere too. Obama's attempt to steamroll Congress into subsidising F-16s for Pakistan may have failed but the intention behind the push was not exactly beneficial for India.
Modi will be visiting the US in the dying days of the Obama presidency. This winter the US will elect a new president. Given the prediction-defying campaign of Donald Trump, we could witness a tectonic shift in American politics: he is not just a Republican but a lot more. If pundits are proven right and Hillary Clinton wins the race, we could be in for tough times.
On this visit, Modi would have to hedge his bets and walk a tightrope. Being seen to be endorsing, even if the most tangentially, either of the two candidates will fetch negative returns. The best bet would be to walk the straight path and state India's wish list, without bothering too much about shared visions and other such fluff.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)