Poor Sushma. Modi, Doval and Madhav have made a mess of foreign policy
So who is minding the foreign office in Modi government?
The short answer is, because there are three power centres involved, and all who must be obeyed, there's a major foreign policy crisis. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) flop show is a recent example of this mess.
What should have been handled as a quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy was turned into a Bollywood-esque spectacle, complete with stopovers for "songs" in scenic locations by the "hero", Prime Minister Narendra Modi, from his fourth trip to the US to his trips to Switzerland and Mexico.
Even his "jhoola diplomacy" with Chinese president Xi Jinping during the latter's visit to India in 2014 failed to sway China at the NSG.
And, just like a Rs 500-crore Bollywood film flopping, the NSG fiasco left all those concerned ashen-faced, and the ministry of external affairs (MEA) was forced to pick up the pieces.
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| Modi's "chai pe charcha" with Barack Obama. |
Had India's push for NSG membership resulted in success, it would no doubt have been credited entirely to Modi's diplomatic skills, with paeans dedicated to his 24x7 working style (sleeping on aircrafts etc).
The fault is now squarely being put on the MEA for the failure.
And, MEA officials are, I am told, indignant.
A senior secretary in charge of a division at the MEA said, "We have been reduced to a glorious post office. Our minister is left to be a sort of Mother Teresa on Twitter, who offers aid and succour to Indians everywhere. Our institutional prowess is scorned. The PMO did not even bother to consult us before embarking on this misadventure."
The official added, "The national security adviser, Ajit Doval, an IB official, has zero experience of the foreign office. Doval is out of his depth with both China and Pakistan and yet insists on handling both countries almost exclusively. Ideally, he should have been fired for what happened in Pathankot. Because of him China has hyphenated us with Pakistan, which he has ensured."
That's the problem - despite having the experienced Sushma Swaraj as the external affairs minister, you have Doval acting on the behalf of the PMO, and the Kissinger-wannabe and RSS-backed BJP general secretary Ram Madhav assiduously meddling in all and sundry affairs. Senior officials at the MEA don't quite know how to function and whom to follow.
Take Nepal for instance. India's relations with Nepal have hit an abysmal low. When the earthquake struck in 2015, both Madhav and Doval decided to use it to showcase "super Modi" by ensuring Air Force relief crews with cameramen on board, and insisting Nepal express "gratitude to Modiji for the aid".
Modi, not one to shy away from publicity, even tweeted that he had informed Nepali authorities about the earthquake! From those halcyon days to the blockade over the vexed Madhesi issue, and China literally muscling us out of Nepal, it has been a quick slippery slope for India to being a pariah for Nepal.
The foreign secretary S Jaishankar who had earlier been India's ambassador to the US and China, and who has been one of the key negotiators of the nuclear treaty, I am told, is almost helpless as Doval dictates policy.
A senior MEA official told me, "Jaishankar would have been an ideal sounding board for the PM on NSG, yet he was barely consulted."
The entire Indian Foreign Service (IFS), having witnessed the cutting short of the tenure of the previous foreign secretary Sujatha Singh by Modi, is watching its back without saying a word. At that time, Jaishankar was brought in as her replacement. Modi was pleased how well Jaishankar handled his maiden US visit in 2014. Of late, the chemistry has weakened and cracks are starting to show.
Sources reveal, Jaishanakar was blamed, perhaps unfairly, for the fact that US president Barack Obama did not work the phones like George W Bush did in 2008, to help India's NSG bid.
Considering Modi revels in his friendship with "Barack" and has talked about their "chemistry" and how he does "gup" with the US president, it's a tad unfair to blame the senior official.
US undersecretary of state for political affairs Thomas Shannon, during his visit to India last month, said China's motives to secure the South China Sea were "madness" and that the US would work to ensure India remained the "natural power" in the Indian Ocean Region. China, predictably, reacted angrily and aggressively to Shannon's statements.
Modi, during his two-year tenure, has made 38 trips abroad and has practically ensured that the foreign minister does not accompany him. He will embark on a tour of Africa soon.
After so much of engagement with world leaders, it's fair to ask what all this has resulted for India?
The visits may have raised Modi's personal profile as no country in the world can afford not to engage with India. The rock shows organised abroad by Ram Madhav and Doval' son Shaurya have confused analysts - is Modi reaching out to foreign establishments or just campaigning with the disaspora?
Modi's repeated running down of foreign policy before the commencement of his tenure has made the MEA uncomfortable. Continuity and institutional memory are the two essential components of foreign policy.
Sources point out that Modi did a stopover to meet Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif in December last year but could not prevent the Pathankot attack soon after. Apparently, nobody in the entire foreign policy establishment had any idea that he was going to Pakistan.
India's relations with China, Pakistan and the US are in a strange twilight zone and overall, world diplomacy has not worked.
It's time to change the approach.
Modi needs to ensure that Swaraj and the MEA have much more of a say. Doval, who is clearly at sea (recall the "historic Naga accord" announced with much fanfare from 7 RCR and never heard of again?), must be taken away from the equation.
A secretary-level official wryly told me, "We don't need a desi James Bond. Let Doval be an advisor to Modi. He's a terrible NSA."
Rumours swirl around that Jaishankar should replace Doval as the NSA. But, as usual, the man who has the final word, Modi, is mum.
And, what about our desi Kissinger, Ram Madhav?
BJP leaders, inimical to him, speak of his multiple trips to China in hushed voices. They say that he should either be made Swaraj's deputy or a junior minister in the PMO, but this quasi official cutting a swathe around the world, needs to stop as he lacks any accountability.
"It's been two years of over the top personal projections of one man," a senior official told me. "We need to focus on projecting India's interests. Now more than ever as China grows more belligerent about its great power exceptionalism and the US hovers on the brink of a fraught election."
The keen observer terms this as the "Maha Modi circus of MEA".