Can BJP find its next Narendra Modi in Gujarat?

Gujarat chief minister Anandiben Patel's resignation was expected. During her tenure of more than two years, the BJP, for the first time in the post-Narendra Modi era in Gujarat, faced multiple challenges including defeat in rural areas in the civic polls.

There was a powerful agitation by the Patel community for OBC quota last year, and there is an ongoing unrest over the flogging of Dalits who skinned a dead cow in Una.

Above all, allegations of land scams involving Anandiben's children have also surfaced.

Also read - Two people in the fray to be next Gujarat CM: Tough call for Modi-Shah

Though the official reason for her resignation was that she had reached the unwritten age ceiling of 75 years fixed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for holding positions in state and Central governments, her position as the chief minister was unstable.

And the famous Gujarat Model, which helped Modi become the prime minister, seems to be crumbling.

As Anandiben's successor, various names are making the rounds. The names of Vijay Rupani, the state unit president of the BJP, state Cabinet ministers Nitin Patel and Saurabh Patel, and Purushottam Rupala, minister of state in the Modi government, are being discussed.

There is also speculation that Amit Shah too wants to be the Gujarat chief minister even before his term as the BJP national president ends.

Though the BJP president rubbished such a speculation, given the unpredictable style of Modi's functioning and the fact that Modi's prestige is at stake in the Gujarat elections next year, no one should be surprised, if Modi's trusted lieutenant Shah is sent to Ahmedabad.

Also read: Anandiben Patel's resignation won't save BJP in Gujarat

But can any one of these leaders, who are speculated to take over as the Gujarat chief minister, salvage the situation in Gujarat? Can they revive the sagging political fortunes of the BJP?

Will 18 years of uninterrupted power of the BJP in Gujarat get another extension in 2017? Anandiben's resignation bears an uncanny resemblance to circumstances which led to the then chief minister Keshubhai Patel's exit in 2001.

Like her, Keshubhai was under severe pressure and facing criticism after the BJP lost by-elections to the Sabarkanta Lok Sabha and Sabarmati Assembly seats.

Anandiben couldn't handle the Dalit and Patel agitations properly. Similarly, there was frustration against Keshubhai and the BJP government in the state following its handling of the devastating 2001 earthquake.

Like Keshubhai, Anandiben too is from the dominant Patel community. Her rule saw her daughter Anar emerge as a parallel power centre, for which Anandiben was even ticked off by Modi.

There have also been accusations of unfavourable land deals by the government with Anar's business partners. Likewise, allegations of corruption were made against Keshubhi's finance minister Vajubhai Vala. Now that Anandiben has resigned with elections in the state round the corner, the BJP is once again facing the same crisis as it did in 2001 and looking for a new face.

In 2001, the BJP got Modi as its chief minister. He replaced one of the most powerful Patel leaders, Keshubhai, and ensured that the BJP never lost any Assembly election in the state thereafter.

Modi's USP was his excellent organisational ability, oratorical proficiency and ability to take quick decisions. And above all, the patronage of the mighty LK Advani made him not only indispensable for the BJP in Gujarat but with the passage of time, he emerged as the only BJP leader in history to ensure full majority for the party in Lok Sabha elections. The BJP is in search of another Modi in Gujarat.

However, apart from all his capabilities, luck too favoured Modi in his political journey. Even Modi got electoral success following the 2002 riots.

The need of the hour for the Gujarat BJP is not only another Modi but also someone who is as lucky as he was. Who could this be?

Only time will tell, if the Gujarat BJP gets another Modi and if he too is as successful.