Is Modi growing afraid of Nitish-Lalu-Sonia alliance in Bihar?

Behind the trading of charges between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Janata Parivar duo - Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad - over remarks like "political DNA", "Bimaru" and "shabd-wapsi", a weird political game is being played out in Bihar these days. The unprecedented political drama is over the scheduling and rescheduling of dates for public rallies.

The "maha-gathbandhan" (grand alliance) of the JD(U), RJD and Congress is holding a Swabhimaan (self-respect) rally in Patna on August 30 to press upon Modi to take back his "political DNA" and "Bimaru" remarks. Originally, Nitish had announced on August 10 that the grand alliance would launch "shabd wapsi" (take back your words) campaign on August 11 in which over 50 lakh people would send to Modi their hair and nail samples for DNA testing. He announced that the first phase of the campaign would culminate with "Swabhimaan rally" in Patna on August 29. Nitish, perhaps, forgot that Raksha Bandhan fell on the same day and many people would prefer to celebrate the festival rather than attend his rally.

On the other hand, the BJP had already chosen August 30 for Modi's fourth leg of Parivartan (change) rally to be held in Bhagalpur. The Parivartan rally got off to a start on July 25 from Muzaffarpur where Modi made the controversial "political DNA" remark against Nitish. His second meeting took place in Gaya on August 9 where he repeated his "DNA" comment and said if voted to power, the BJP would rid Bihar of the "Bimaru" tag. Modi addressed the third leg of his rally in Arrah and Saharsa on August 18 and announced Rs 1.65-lakh crore package for the poll-bound state.

While Nitish and Lalu were expected to address their first rally together after forming the grand alliance on August 29 from Patna, and Modi was supposed to give a rebuttal the very next day from Bhagalpur, the whole scenario stands changed now. On August 13, while announcing the seat-sharing formula between the JD(U), RJD, Congress and NCP (which stomped out of the alliance to protest awarding of just three seats to contest), Lalu shifted the date of the Swabhimaan rally by a day. While the date of the alliance's rally was shifted to August 30 to avoid a clash with Raksha Bandhan, it coincided with Modi's Parivartan rally.

There can be no two opinions that Lalu and Nitish deliberately changed their rally dates to clash with Modi's. On the other hand, the PM is also not known to shy away from such challenges. A similar clash of dates had taken place when both Modi and the Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi had addressed public rallies in the same constituency of Nagaon in Assam on April 19, 2014 during the Lok Sabha elections. During the rally, Modi said, "Friends from the media have been waiting for the last two months hoping 'Modiji aur Rahulji ka kahin muqabla ho jai (Modi and Rahul may confront each other somewhere)' and their wish has been fulfilled in Nagaon today… I appeal to the unbiased media to take the opportunity and judge for themselves the emotional wavelength of the people here and in whose favour the wave is".

One had hoped to get a better spectacle this Sunday as Modi would have had not one but four contenders as the Swabhimaan rally is scheduled to be addressed by four veterans - the Congress president Sonia Gandhi and the Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav besides Nitish and Lalu. Alas, that was meant not to be! The BJP shifted Modi's rally date in Bhagalpur to September 1. On August 30, Modi will address the nation on his monthly radio programme Mann ki Baat instead.

Am sure you have a lot of ideas & suggestions for the upcoming 'Mann Ki Baat' programme on 30th. Share them here. https://t.co/0geo7fmUWx

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) August 22, 2015

This time, it was Nitish's turn to poke fun at Modi and, while addressing a meeting of the JD(U) in Patna on August 17, he accused the BJP of being restless as the grand alliance had materialised and said it was reflected in the change of Modi's Parivartan rally.

As Nitish pointed out, the BJP may have got wary of the grand alliance. However, friends in the BJP rubbished it. They gave three reasons for the rescheduling of the rallies:

1. Wait for a thunderous reply. Modi will get ample time to hit back at Nitish-Lalu-Sonia-Mulayam combine.

2. It would have been difficult for the BJP workers and supporters to reach the venue because of the two-day fair "saavan mela" which will be held in Bhagalpur on August 29 and 30. The roads would be choc-a-block with Kanwar pilgrims on the last day of the Hindi month.

3. People would have faced problems in reaching Bhagalpur as the grand alliance would have "seized" vehicles for facilitating people to reach their rally leaving very few for the BJP's programme.

The question is: Did the BJP really develop cold feet and avoided a "clash of the Titans" or is it really a clever strategic move?