Modi must respect elders, or suffer
"Knives will be out", a senior BJP insider stated with a cold look while discussing the likely fallout of different outcomes of the Bihar verdict. Needless to say that this assertion was made while discussing the possibility of the party losing in Bihar. It was therefore natural that a flag of rebellion would be raised within the party. The only question was when and by whom.
The ageing duo of Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi - not exactly the best of friends even in their heydays - decided to collaborate with two other "jobless" elders. That Advani and Joshi were assisted to an extent in this endeavour by two other sidelined people - KN Govindacharya and Arun Shourie - can give wind to the argument of Narendra Modi loyalists that this banner of revolt will not be upheld by anyone else and that the Modi-Amit Shah duo will not ease their stranglehold on the party.
But, this move has to be seen in the backdrop of the fact that the four party elders have nothing to lose - and even nothing to gain - but are basically acting to get even with Modi for having dealt with them so ruthlessly. If the revolt succeeds, the ones to benefit will be the ones who are not coming out in their support at the moment but will eventually do so if the rebellion gains further public support. At the moment, the support for Messrs Advani, Joshi and company is stated under one's breath and in off-record conversations. I spoke to several BJP leaders and they were privately unanimous in their view that the party must take "corrective steps".
At the top of the list of curative measures is the removal of Shah as party president. It needs to be mentioned that Shah is currently serving out the term of Rajnath Singh as president. In the BJP constitution, if a president is changed midway through his term of three years, the new chief has to first serve out the remainder of the term. Shah did not get elected in July 2014 but was nominated by the Parliamentary Board and the decision was later ratified by the National Council. If Shah gets elected in January 2016 he will remain at the party's helm during the 2019 general election. At the moment, the opponents of Modi do not wish him to retain the complete control he has over the party machinery through Shah and thus the main target of the rebels is the incumbent party president.
The most crucial role in this exercise will be that of the Rasthriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). It is yet to emerge if the RSS leadership supports the move of the ageing quartet but there are reports that the present RSS leadership has been doing some "fact-finding" on its own through Krishna Gopal - the joint general secretary of the organisation entrusted with liaising with the BJP. There is also the question of the shadowy nature of the RSS and the power games that go on within it. Is the move of the ageing quartet being backed by the present leadership or a faction within the RSS?
Make no mistake, this is the first serious challenge to Modi within the party after he assumed complete command in 2013. How he weathers the storm will determine not just the remainder of his premiership but also the clout he is left with. The main problem that Modi may have to face is that he is low on support of the state satraps. Owing to his ruthless style of functioning, barring a handful in the top echelons of the party, most find him very remote and inaccessible.
At the present there is no challenge to Modi's leadership because he still remains the party's best bet in the hustings and as surveys demonstrated, his ratings are still fairly high. But the attack on him is aimed at forcing him to reform the party and share the leadership in the manner previous presidents used to. Advani, after being given a jolly good birthday present by the people of Bihar, has demonstrated that firecrackers had burst in Delhi instead of in Pakistan, as Shah had claimed. Coming on the eve of a major foreign tour, the moment couldn't have been worse.