It's not Modi, it's Amit Shah: BJP's challenges from within
If you thought Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be bloodied and bowed after the BJP's rout in Bihar, it might be a good idea to think again. Despite the insurrection by a few party MPs from that state - Shatrughan Sinha, RK Singh, Bhola Singh, and now Chhedi Paswan, to name a few - on the need for a soul-searching as well as the revolt of a few party elders, Modi remains pretty much king of the game.
Let's look at the facts first: The demand by the BJP's gang of four, led by former deputy prime minister LK Advani, to fix responsibility for the party's defeat won't get much traction for the moment, simply because none of these leaders have the capacity to damage Modi. Finance minister Arun Jaitley didn't even raise the matter when he went to call on his former mentor in the wake of the Bihar defeat, ostensibly to personally invite him for his daughter's December wedding. There were certainly some words exchanged between Jaitley and Murli Manohar Joshi, but it's a moot point how important these leaders are to the RSS anymore.
Confidant
Certainly, the party elders are targeting the BJP president Amit Shah - for nobody dare target Modi yet. As the prime minister's closest confidant and the man-in-charge of Bihar, Shah stood shoulder-to-shoulder with his boss on most billboards in Bihar. Meaning, both Gujaratis got equal share on the advertisement. Fact is, the party elders and the unhappy Bihar MPs are baying for Shah.
Will Modi allow him to go? The BJP president's elections are a whole two months away, only by mid-January 2016, and as a senior party leader asserted, "That's a very long time in politics". In the interregnum is the winter session of Parliament as well as a possible reshuffle in government.
By all accounts, Modi will be extremely reluctant to let Shah be dropped. Shah has been the prime minister's torpedo man for several years in Gujarat, especially in the wake of the 2002 Gujarat riots. He has been credited for the BJP's amazing victory in Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 polls (71 seats out of 80).
His hold over the prime minister is said to be fulsome. Perhaps for that very reason, to shake off this publicly stated dependence, the prime minister could consider a change at the top?
Meanwhile, home minister Rajnath Singh, who has a good equation with the Sangh Parivar, is returning to centre-stage. He is closer to the RSS than any other Union government leader, save the prime minister of course. Remember that Shah took over the remainder of Rajnath's term as party president in July 2014. Names of other probables doing the rounds are health minister JP Nadda as well as the RSS' perennial favourite, transport minister Nitin Gadkari.
As for the prime minister, he has just returned from the G20 summit with the world's leaders where he has underlined the need to go after all terrorists, not only the "bad ones". In the wake of the Paris attacks, the world may yet heed Modi's advice seriously.
The bottomline? Nobody is challenging the PM, at least not yet and not until the divided Opposition comes together again. In Bihar's wake, the Congress seems excited about winning back Punjab under the leadership of Capt Amarinder Singh, while West Bengal will remain the fief of Mamata Banerjee when elections to both states are held next year. And the bell has begun to toll for Uttar Pradesh's polls in 2017, certainly a semi-final to the next General Elections in 2019.
Blueprint
But all those who can't think that far ahead should travel to Bikaner House on the India Gate circle in Delhi to see what Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje has done to a space that has been a warren of the small bourgeoisie these past several decades. A year ago Raje ordered that Bikaner House become the gateway to her state - it was opened earlier this week to a stunning revamp by the conservation architect Abha Narain Lamba, a fashion show curated by Prasad Bidapa and an art gallery, all of it supervised under the gimlet eyes of Malvika Singh. A blueprint for the state's economic recovery is being prepared, as we speak.
Challenge
Truth is, if the BJP-ruled states can demonstrate progress, no prizes for guessing that they will have the capacity to mount a challenge to Modi from within. Along with Raje's Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh's Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Chhattisgarh's Raman Singh have been chief ministers for at least ten years. Since they tightly control their states, they will gain if Modi weakens at the Centre. It's no secret that the equations between some of these chief ministers and Modi aren't exactly rosy.
The Bihar debacle has certainly opened up the political landscape. All those who want to take advantage of it must have their hats at the ready.