What the coming together of SP-BSP in Uttar Pradesh signifies
In one of my earlier articles, I had argued that despite the nightmare that unfolded for Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the March of 2017, it would be too early to write their political obituaries.
Both BSP and SP more or less held on to their core vote bank, and failed to add the fence-sitters or the most backward classes (MBCs) among the other backward classes to their fold. Together with the Congress, they commanded over 50 per cent of the votes polled. The coming by-polls have brought these political fancies back to political narrative.
In a dramatic development, SP announced that it had the support of the BSP in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh by-polls. While BSP has decided not to contest the by-polls, SP and Congress (which had a pre-poll alliance in 2017) have carved separate ways in these by-polls.
BSP's support
The Phulpur constituency was a stronghold of the BSP before 2014 elections. A SP-BSP tactical understanding could stop frittering away of the Muslim vote and prove a resurgence point for Dalit-Muslim-Yadav (DMY) politics (in the by-polls) that had dominated the UP political landscape for decades. Any addition to this could prove detrimental to BJP's prospects.
Let's get down to some arithmetic to see how this could work in real life scenario. The two constituencies, Gorakhpur and Phulpur, have five Assembly segments each. BJP won all 10 assembly segments in 2017. But the combined vote share in these seats of BSP and SP plus Congress, could have given five seats to SP, two to BSP, two to Congress, and leaving only one for BJP. It is also known that Phulpur, in particular, was a "Modi wave" win, it isn't a stronghold of either Keshav Prasad Maurya or BJP, and even in Gorakhpur, it was only in Gorakhpur urban, where BJP had managed to inch ahead of the combined vote-share of the three parties. With Modi wave, waned to an extent, this could throw surprising results.
Battle of prestige
Fresh out of a massive setback in Rajasthan, the by-elections to the Parliament seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur are seen as a must-win for the BJP. Not only because these have been vacated by prominent personalities - chief minister Yogi Adityanath and his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya, but also because a SP-BSP alliance, along with a tactical understanding with the Congress, has made these by-elections a BJP versus the rest battle. A loss in these would be seen as a verdict of the newly stalled BJP government. A win of the Opposition here, would strengthen the alliance, and will send ripples across the political landscape of the country.
Alliances with smaller parties
To shore up SP's shrinking support base, Akhilesh Yadav is looking at stitching alliances with smaller parties that could play party-spoiler in many seats. Charting a new political trajectory, Akhilesh Yadav is attempting to go beyond the traditional Yadav-Muslim political combination and extend outreach to the MBCs through mergers and alliances with smaller caste-based parties. By announcing Pravin Nishad, son of Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (Nishad) party's founder Sanjay Nishad, Samajwadi Party has shown the flexibility required to get additional MBC votes. Nishads have close to three lakh votes in Gorakhpur, which could possibly prove a game changer in the elections. The Nishad community (Nishads, Mallahs, and Kewats) in UP constitutes less than 4 per cent of the OBC population but is one of the more politically organised OBC groups.
Similarly, by fielding Nagendra Pratap Singh Patel, a Kurmi, SP has made overtures to the Kurmi community, which constitutes about 9 per cent of the population of the state. In a recent development, Akhilesh Yadav paid visit to old time loyalist and Kurmi leader, Beni Prasad Verma, in an attempt to mend fences with veteran caste leaders, who yield influence. Similar overtures have been made to the Peace Party, which yields support base of Parsmanda Muslims in eastern UP, and is seen as a potential ally to consolidate Muslim votes in the belt.
A multi-corner election
Something that has gone completely unnoticed is the tactical decision of Congress to contest these elections, knowing the fact that it yields no edge in these two seats and will only be remembered as a "also ran" party.
Both its candidates Surhita Chatterjee Karim from Gorakhpur and Manish Mishra from Phulpur, belong to influential Brahmin community.
Congress had been trying to get a piece of the upper caste pie, which has for long been consolidating behind BJP. According to Congress' calculations, the two candidates might steal a section of upper caste voters, who may not be averse to shifting their loyalties from the BJP. However, the lackluster campaigning by the Congress, makes this quite doubtful.
For the Gorakhpur by-election, Congress candidate Chatterjee Karim is said to be popular both among the region's numerically strong Bengali population, and among upper caste in the Gorakhpur town. Even in 2014, BJP had polled higher vote share (56 per cent) in Gorakhpur urban. In the other assembly segments, this was less than 40 per cent. Thus, any shift in vote share in the urban segment will be a direct blow to BJP.
Congress candidate Chatterjee Karim, married into a Muslim family, is said to have almost no support base outside the urban segments. Thus, whatever vote share she garners, would be a direct loss to BJP's Brahmin candidate Upendra Shukla.
Similarly in the Phulpur seat, where both SP and BJP have fielded Patel candidates, and SP's Nagendra Patel is expected to vie for OBC votes with the traditional Muslim votes, Congress by fielding a strong Brahmin candidate here, has made a serious bid to tap into the Brahmin vote bank. If the upper caste consolidation in favour of BJP, can be prevented, and tactical moves taken to get the other OBCs into its fold, BJP's victory march can be stopped.
Tactical cooperation among parties
A direct alliance between the three players, spells an antithesis to consolidation of individual vote base. There exists huge distrust among the vote-banks they command and a direct alliance may result in frittering of votes, rather than consolidation. Dalits of BSP, and Brahmins of Congress, distrust the Yadav vote bank of SP, and thus a section would likely shift towards BJP, in case of direct alliance. However, contesting elections alone leaves the Opposition without any proven strategy to defeat the surging BJP. A rather common understanding here could be to have one strong contender against BJP, and contestants which could take away a section of core-BJP votes. A victory in any of the seats would prove that a multi-corner fight with a tactical understanding among Opposition parties can yield partial victory in the politically convoluted state of UP. So, if not a direct alliance, a shared understanding could be the pragmatic move. But, till then it is 'game on' in UP.
BSP had announced that this understanding is limited to the by-polls and shouldn't be taken as an alliance between the two parties. But as the political history of the state has been, never read the obvious and leave some grounds for possibilities.