How BJP is hurting Lalu's Muslim-Yadav formula
The BJP on July 16 launched an offensive against its rivals in Bihar - the JD(U)-RJD-Congress-NCP grand alliance - by rolling out 160 GPS-fitted hi-tech "raths" for a "parivartan yatra" (journey for change) for the upcoming assembly elections in the state. The focus of the "yatra", launched by party president Amit Shah, would be the 15-year "jungle raj" during the rule of Yadav couple Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi, and also the Nitish Kumar government ever since the JD(U) broke away from the BJP in June 2013 and later associated with Lalu.
This makes Lalu Yadav the major target of BJP's campaign. The "raths" would also show videos of the "misrule" during the jungle raj and how Nitish and the Yadav strongman, now in an alliance, "destroyed" the state.
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi will sound the poll bugle when he addresses a public rally in Muzaffarpur on July 25, on another level, the BJP has already taken several steps to hit Lalu where it will hurt him the most. The former Bihar chief minister, much like Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh, created an election-winning votebank combining the Muslims and Yadavs, popularly known as "MY". Yadavs and Muslims constitute 11 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, of the state's population.
The BJP has focused on creating its own army of Yadav leaders to counter Lalu, a Yadav himself. Towards this symbolism, which holds significance in caste and religion-ridden states like Bihar and UP, the BJP has quite systematically assigned important positions to the Yadavs. Nand Kishore Yadav, one of the strong contenders for the chief minister's post, is the leader of Opposition in the Bihar Assembly, while Ram Kripal Yadav is the Union minister of state for drinking water and sanitation. Ram Kripal was Lalu's confidante till he was denied a Lok Sabha ticket from Pataliputra for the 2014 general elections. Peeved over Lalu's daughter Misa Bharti getting preference, he quit RJD to protest dynasty politics, contested against her on a BJP ticket and defeated her.
Hukumdev Narayan Yadav is a prominent Lok Sabha MP from Madhubani while the election in-charge of party's state unit is national general secretary Bhupender Yadav, a Rajya Sabha MP from Rajasthan, though the latter does not have much to do with Bihar. Then again, symbolism does matter in politics.
Rajesh Ranjan, popularly known as Pappu Yadav, who defeated JD(U) president Sharad Yadav in Madhepura Lok Sabha constituency in 2014 on an RJD ticket too revolted against Lalu's "dynasty politics" and is now hobnobbing with the BJP. With a battery of senior Yadav leaders in its kitty, the BJP is all set to challenge Lalu's dominance over his castemen.
There is also a threat to Lalu's influence over Muslims as Union consumer affairs minister Ram Vilas Paswan poses a major challenge. During the stalemate over government formation in 2005, Paswan had refused to join the RJD-led government and stuck to his position of electing a Muslim CM. A certain section of Muslims is believed to have voted for Paswan's LJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The Muslims appear to have got disillusioned with Lalu. With the Yadavs deserting the Lalu bandwagon, the Muslims may not be far behind. The "MY" votebank failed Lalu not only in the last general elections, but also the recent legislative council polls in which the NDA won 13 out of 24 seats, while the grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD, Congress and NCP won just 10 seats. A case of Lalu's "MY" versus NDA's "Ms and Ys".