As Amit Shah’s Jan Raksha Yatra boomerangs, what BJP can learn from its Kerala debacle
What the BJP doesn’t seem to have figured out yet is that the likes of Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah would hardly appeal to the people of Kerala.
The much tomtommed “Jan Raksha Yatra” of the BJP concluded on Tuesday, October 17, in Kerala’s capital Thiruvananthapuram. As the procession reached the University College premises in its last leg, BJP national president Amit Shah finally rejoined his state counterpart, Kummanam Rajasekharan, and others after his vanishing act on October 4.
Despite a sizeable crowd owing to the BJP’s solid base in the region and Shah throwing the gauntlet down at CM Pinarayi Vijayan in the valedictory function, the local media hardly took notice.
Once again, it was left to the national media (read Delhi-based media), whose posse of journalists had added sizeable numbers to this one-of-a-kind padayatra in the initial legs, to come the BJP’s rescue. Political yatras are neither a new phenomenon nor unique for Keralites, as they encounter it all the time. Within the next one week, a couple of padayatras by the CPM and the Congress are due to hit the streets.
But despite all the theatre and the surround-sound created in Delhi and other state capitals, the Jan Raksha Yatra has only managed to damage the prospects of the BJP in Kerala. A case in point is the results of the Vengara Assembly bypoll held on October 11, coinciding with the Jan Raksha Yatra.
Where they polled 7,000 odd votes in the 2016 Assembly election and came a distant third (winning less than 10 per cent votes of what the victorious candidate PK Kunjalikkutty got), they actually fared even worse this time round, with just 5,700 odd votes to finish fourth.
What the BJP doesn’t seem to have figured out yet is that the likes of Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah would hardly appeal to the people of Kerala. While the party had slowly been improving their vote base and acceptability in drawing room conversations, the Jan Raksha Yatra might have pushed them behind by some years and back to the drawing board.
The politically astute Malayalees saw this as an attempt to polarise people on religious lines. In a state where different communities cherish their peaceful coexistence, they would hardly be taken in by the Hindutva mascots, whose notoriety precedes them.
The BJP central leadership has actually thrown their state counterparts under the bus in their quest to project the state as a hub of “Red and Jihadi terror”. In fact, if it all the Jan Raksha Yatra has proved anything, it is that Kerala is a law-abiding state.
The political violence in Kannur is merely an aberration. The procession, which went about in fits and starts, wasn’t marred by any stray incidents. Contrast this to the spate of incidents of terror involving the holy cow emerging from states like Haryana and Rajasthan in the interim.
In any case, what should be the barometer to judge a civilised society? Rule of law should figure on top. The media entourage from Delhi would have realised that people of Kerala respect the law and no saffron gamcha-wearing goons get to take the law into their hands and unleash terror with the tacit approval of the state.
Threats like gouging the eyes out of CPM cadre from cow belt politicians further invited backlash for their state counterparts. In fact, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has received bipartisan support from people across the political spectrum in combating attacks on the state and its people by a party largely alien to the ethos of Kerala. If the BJP would want to see their prospects improving in the state, they should immediately put an end to bad-mouthing Kerala to suit their narrow ends elsewhere. What the party could instead do is to revert to the model they had successfully adopted in the last decade or so, when they would try to present themselves as a third alternative in a state with predictable bipolar polity since 1982.
Their enthusiastic cadre would go to the homes of voters with a plea to vote for them and win over some fence-sitters in the process with their enthusiasm. If that didn’t suffice, the sympathy card also came in handy. That was actually one of the trump cards of O Rajagopal, BJP’s lone winning Assembly candidate in the state in 2016.
Rajagopal, an 88-year-old veteran, has been desperately and indiscriminately fielded by the BJP in almost every parliamentary and Assembly election that has been held in the state. On top of that, he would also figure in every by-election in addition.
For instance, since his second place finish in the 2011 Assembly elections from Nemom, he has been fielded in 2012 in the Neyyattinkara bypoll, 2014 general elections where he ran against Shashi Tharoor and the 2015 Aruvikkara bypoll before finally opening his and his party’s account from Nemom in 2016.
Though Rajagopal has expressed his desire to quit electoral politics many times, his party simply wouldn’t let him, as he has always been considered their best bet. Rajagopal is acceptable to a lot of people because of his affable nature and soft-spoken demeanour. There was a popular joke post the release of Rajinikanth’s Robot that Rajagopal should be cloned to contest from all the 140 seats in Kerala for the BJP as he is acceptable to a lot of people.
Jokes aside, there is a lesson for the BJP here. Even if a section of Keralites took a liking to the mild-mannered Vajpayee in the past and another section might look favourably upon Modi for his supposed virtues in the present, there is no way either group would fall for hard-line Hindutva, the one represented by the likes of Yogi Adityanath.
So, speaking from a strictly neutral perspective, what could the BJP do to improve its prospects in Kerala? First, let the local leadership, factional fights notwithstanding, create their strategies; or to put it more plainly, stop dictating terms from Delhi. It is better to not damage things beyond repair and try to emerge as a contender in the long term even if it would mean having to literally beg for votes in the present scenario.
In the same way, the Kerala BJP could take a leaf out of their Delhi counterparts in media and headline management. Plus, utilise the disproportionate space they get in the TV studios to give a good account of themselves. People do take note when they see some CPI(M) spokespersons behave brashly and try bully anchors, thereby making the BJP spokespersons look better in the process. And while at it, also do something about their cringeworthy mouthpieces, Janam TV and the daily Janmabhumi.
And the soft-hindutva model that helped them garner almost 10 per cent more Nair votes than the UDF in the 2016 Assembly elections could be rehashed. That should also freak out the Communists, torn between their overt claims of “dialectical materialism” and doublespeak on matters of religion.
The issue of holding parallel processions on Janmashtami since 2015 - despite being limited to Kannur - and the Guruvayoor temple controversy involving Minister Kadakampally Surendran, are recent instances that come to mind.