Why ISIS planning to attack India report is false

Amidst the hullabaloo surrounding Yakub Memon's hanging, USA Today reported that the Islamic State (ISIS) is planning a major attack on India, according to a document procured by American Media Institute. It predicted that an attack would provoke an apocalyptic confrontation with the US. Even if the US tries to attack with all its allies, which undoubtedly it will, the Muslim Ummah (community) would be united, resulting in the final battle.

The report further said that the ISIS sought to unite dozens of factions of the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban into a single army of terror. The 32-page Urdu document has been procured from a Pakistani citizen who has deep connections within the Pakistani Taliban and has been independently translated into English by a Harvard scholar and verified by several serving and retired intelligence officials.

However, the report was termed as rubbish by the Indian intelligence bureau (IB) and home ministry. "The document, if reports are to be believed, is the handiwork of senseless IS men," said joint secretary, internal security-I, MA Ganapathy.

There is enough evidence to suggest that the ISIS was created with the support of the US, with an intention to fight the Syria regime led by Bashar al-Assad, in keeping with America's decade-old strategy of supporting rebel and jihadi groups to fulfil their own interests. Even if the report is credible and true, the ISIS' plan of attacking India through their desired means looks seemingly difficult. Here are three reasons why:

1. Taliban opposed to the ISIS: Post the ISIS' unprecedented expansion in Iraq and Syria, it has been focusing on expanding in Afghanistan. There have been various clashes between the two terrorist groups, with the ISIS beheading ten Taliban militants last month, which has intensified the rivalry. The differences have grew to such an extent that Shia Iran, who has been a long-time foe of Sunni Taliban, is now providing arms and money to curb the ISIS' growth in Afghanistan, which will increase after the lifting of sanctions against Iran. Last month, the Afghan Taliban released a letter requesting the ISIS to stay out of their territory and let both the groups stick to their own affairs. Even the Pakistani Taliban has rejected the ISIS' idea of a self-professed caliphate. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the Taliban (Afghan and Pakistani) will join hands with the ISIS.

2. Friendship between Pakistan and Taliban: It is no secret that the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the military dominate the internal affairs in Pakistan and it is impossible that they will let the ISIS use Pakistan as a territory to fight against India, US and its allies. The Afghan Taliban has always been supported by Pakistan to keep Afghanistan in check and serve their own interests, and under no circumstances will Pakistan turn against one of its oldest allies.

3. Involvement of Kashmiri terror groups: To attack India, the ISIS has to have strong relationships with Kashmiri jihadi groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen, and so on. Given these groups are supported by the ISI and their objectives are completely different from those of the ISIS, again, the possibility of them supporting the ISIS to wage attacks looks bleak. Though ISIS flags have been spotted a few times in the Valley, there has been no significant presence of the ISIS in India till now.

More than the implausibility of the ISIS' plans, this looks like a ploy by the US to drag more countries into the fight and probably send more troops to Iraq to again fight a full-fledged war. Here are the reasons behind the argument:

1. Ineffective air strikes: In order to combat the ISIS' rise, the US, along with a coalition of Western countries, have been conducting air strikes across Iraq and Syria. Even after eight months, as witnessed by the growth of the ISIS' activities, they haven't been as effective as the US would have desired them to be. A recent report estimated that a total of $3 billion had been spent till now on air strikes, but it hadn't been able to curb the ISIS' rise. Therefore, the release of this alleged ISIS report is probably aimed at compelling more nations to join the fight, especially India and other South-East Asian nations.

2. Increase troop engagement in Iraq: The US' past history reveals that it looks for excuses to invade countries and fight wars. There have been many reports and interviews with Syrian Kurds and Iraqi militia groups which claim that the US is not keen to defeat the ISIS, rather just use them for regional interests. Furthermore, the apparent seriousness of the report can give several excuses to the US for increasing their military engagement in the region, and possibly engage in another war for serving their interests.