Indian Army's surgical strikes much-needed face-saver for Modi government
At 12pm today, September 29, the Director General Military Operations (DGMO), Lieutenant-General Ranbir Singh, held a press conference along with the spokesman of the ministry of external affairs, a rather unprecedented affair, in recent memory. It followed a meeting of the Cabinet Committe on Security(CCS) chaired by the PM and attended among others by the DGMO.
What actually made it even more unprecedented was the announcement made here that the Indian Army had crossed over the Line of Control (LOC) to conduct surgical strikes 2km across the border. The DGMO announced that the Indian forces neutralised terrorist launch pads and those who aided them, and caused significant casualties.
While the war-mongering news anchors and the moustached retired generals were immediately pressed into service on national channels as part of the ongoing verbal warfare post the Uri attacks, it might be necesary to put things in perspective.
A couple of days after the Uri attacks which claimed 18 Indian soldiers, the DGMO had addressed a press conference and announced that the Indian Army will retaliate at a time and place of its choosing. So, is this the retaliation that was promised to us?
Many strategic experts agree that it is not the first time the Indian Army has actually crossed the LOC to inflict casualties across the border. They point out specifically to an instance in 2013. However, this is probably the first time that the military has officially owned up to any such operation. And the government made it a point to relay it.
Even in the past, the UPA government had supposedly given a free hand to the military to deal with cross-border firing and retaliate in kind. But the general consensus was that escalations had to be avoided.
After the Modi government was sworn in, there was a slight difference in approach wherein the military was asked to retaliate not just in kind but to make sure that it inflicted significant costs on Pakistan. Not that it seemed to have too much of an effect on Pakistan.
While the LoC skirmishes went on, India tried its best to engage with Pakistan despite repeated setbacks.
Even as the Pathankot attack happened within a week of Prime Minister Modi’s surprise stopover at Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s home in Lahore, there was an attempt to play it down and give the civilian leadership in Pakistan a fair chance to make sure that they made amends and brought the guilty to trial.
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| Modi government was repeatedly taken for a ride by Pakistan. (Photo: PTI) |
But the Modi government was once again taken for a ride by Pakistan with no reciprocity extended, even after India allowed Pakistan access to the airbase in Pathankot to a team that also included a representative of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).
With the government losing face on a regular basis, and with India’s policy on Pakistan reeking of incoherence as it swung from one extreme to the other, and also in the backdrop of the trouble breaking out in Kashmir post the assasination of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani, the Uri attack happened.
While the outpouring of public opinion was hard to ignore, the government seemed to be at a loss to respond to the situation in real-time as the various arms spoke in multiple voices. Though the DGMO came up with the right to strike back at a time of their choosing a couple of days later, slowly but surely, strategic restraint was being bandied about once again.
Now that there has been some sort of retaliation, the question arises whether this was really such a huge deal if such strikes were conducted even earlier. The difference being, that in earlier instances there was never any acknowledgement of these strikes, with plausible deniability being the keyword.
But this was also a reflection of the public anger, whipped up in part by the media, over repeated transgressions by Pakistan.
Napoleon Bonoparte famously said, "Public opinion is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult," by which count this had become one too many violations for the Modi governemnt to ignore. It was also necessitated on account of the prime minister’s belligerent speeches while in the Opposition.
Another question that has to be explored is whether this could cause an escalation or a retaliation by the Pakistani establishment. The initial responses from across the border suggest that Pakistan has taken it in its stride by refusing to acknowledge that this was actually a cross-border strike but merely "unprovoked firing on the border".
It clearly indicates that Pakistan is not risking an escalation but preparing for what they know best: Covert operations of various degrees through "non-state actors" aided by their military and intelligence establishment.
In the aftermath of bellicose statements from the Indian side post Uri, Pakistan’s defence minsister had gone on to state that they wouldn’t be shy of using nuclear weapons if it was deemed necessary in the event of a strike by the Indian forces. These imature statements too pushed Pakistan into a corner when it came to callibrating their response in the context of the strike today.
There is also a consensus among strategic experts that this is the maximum extent to which India could have possibly gone as we still do not have the capabilities to go for precision strikes well beyond the border.
We not only lack intelligence capabilities but also the special forces and equipment (including low-flying helicopters and night-vision equipments), which would have to perform synchronously to deal with such an emergency and give a "fitting" response to Pakistan.
This, again, speaks volumes about the lack of vision and preparedness of our successive governments despite repeated violations and attacks from across the border since 1999.
It remains to be seen what the fallouts of this strike ares going to be. Whatever it might be, this action by the Indian forces comes as a much-needed face-saver for the Modi government and also in the nick of time.
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