Only a secular opposition can counter Sangh Parivar
It seems that the electoral message of the last Assembly elections hasn't fully sunk into the secular parties. Of course it was a shock. But in retrospect should it have been such a calamity? After all, it is no secret that the Sangh Parivar was active throughout UP since 2013.
They built on the non-Yadav and non-Muslim base. Consequently, the other OBCs and upper castes flocked to the BJP. Demonetisation was misrepresented to the poor as a blow on the black money-hoarding rich. Unlike in Bihar, there was no mahagatbandhan.
The Left cadres came to campaign in relatively few numbers consenting in 90-100 seats, a couple of months earlier. But that was too little and too late to dent the Sangh campaign.
In the case of the Congress, it scrambled for 105 seats in the alliance with the SP in UP, though it didn't have a ghost of a chance of even winning even 20 per cent of those seats. Its obduracy ensured that the RLD could not bring in the Jat vote.
Thus the Congress, the largest secular party, won only 7 seats. The intra-Mulayam Singh Yadav-Akhilesh Yadav struggle did significantly more damage than expected. Mulayam stubbornly refused to campaign. His brother Shivpal Yadav celebrated the SP-Congress defeat. With friends like these who needs enemies?
The split in the Yadav camp only helped the Sangh. Such splits should be resolved swiftly. It is high time that an alliance of the SP-BSP-RLD-Congress-Left is built, bringing in the smaller OBC communities and the minorities. This time not only for the 2019 elections but to face UP CM Yogi Adityanath and his cohorts.
Regional parties and the Left have issues. The TMC is unacceptable to the Left. The Aam Aadmi Party is not keen on alliances, and so on. Though AAP allied with the Lok Insaf Party, which got two seats in the Punjab election, its tally of 22 seats was way below its expectations and has dampened its spirits before the Delhi local elections.
The Left put up more than 80 candidates in UP and got less than 0.1 per cent of the vote. In Manipur, where the CPI has an old base, it got no seats despite being part of a secular alliance. All these parties, including the Left, have to go back to the drawing board, and rework their theoretical/ideological programmes. The Left in Europe, Americas and parts of Asia has undergone significant if not substantial renovations.
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| It is no secret that the Sangh Parivar was active throughout UP since 2013. Photo: Reuters |
The Congress has to rethink its campaign strategies and slogans. The pro-poor slogans of yesterdays have been reworked and taken over by the Modi-Shah team. The Jan Dhan accounts have proved a titillating promise, though the promised sums of money have yet to come. On the other hand, the Congress has not sufficiently propagated the MGNREGA programme, exposing the BJP attack on the programme while simultaneously extolling its potential for significantly reducing poverty among the rural poor.
This would necessitate Congress cadres and leaders moving in rural areas and rebuilding their popular base. This is a major way of rebuilding popular constituencies while at the same time reviving the party.
This mess is perfect news for the Sangh Parivar and allies. A bigger disaster is looming in 2019. In the meantime, former Karnataka CM SM Krishna has joined the BJP, as has an AAP MLA who has rejoined the Sangh in Delhi. No sign of the secular parties taking drastic action, though they are clearly shaken.
However, the leadership in most cases is quite aware of the challenges they and the country face. But the alliance building must start now, followed by a progressive increase of mobilising the masses also by countering negative propaganda.
Last minute alliances just don't work, as we've seen so clearly in UP. In sum, the secular armies have another chance. If they don't get their act together and make adjustments to broad base a secular alliance, they will fail to stop the Sangh advances.