India on tipping point, its disaster management is a disaster

On the cusp of the first anniversary of the Nepal earthquake, it needs to be introspected if India's economy can withstand a jolt of such magnitude. India is a vast geographical diversity, replete with all kinds of natural disasters - floods, earthquakes, cyclones, landslides, snow avalanche, cloudbursts, tsunamis, what have we - knocking at her door every year. Can India afford to further delay its disaster preparedness?

There is a very atypical relationship between development and disasters. Disasters can set back development even as post-disaster scenario provides new opportunities for development. Similarly, development can reduce vulnerability and yet, the same development can increase vulnerability.

The Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) report after the Nepal quake estimated the total value of disaster effects (damages and losses) at NPR 706 billion (USD 7 billion).

Income shock from Nepal quake pushed additional 7,00,000 to 9,00,000 people below poverty line and post-earthquake GDP growth dropped by more than 1.5 percentage points from an estimate of 4.6 per cent in a no-quake scenario in fiscal 2015.

An example closer home is of floods which are an annual, recurring feature across every part of the country: Gangetic hinterlands in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, large parts of Assam that face annual flood situation, Chennai floods in December 2015, Kashmir valley floods in 2014 or the Uttarakhand tragedy of 2013 to name a few. According to a report by the parliamentary standing committee on water resources (2014-15), between years 1953 and 2012, an average of seven million hectares of land and more than 32 million people have been affected each year because of floods.

The average loss of lives during the same period was 1,653 each year, cattle loss was 96,593 each year; a whopping 12.54 lakh houses were damaged and the total damage to crops, houses and public utilities was estimated at Rs 3,612.12 crore each year. It is manifestly clear that it would gel well for India to remember how natural disasters can retard its wheels of economic progress.

As was evident with Nepal's example, economic vulnerability in face of disaster leads to increased poverty, the first on agenda - No Poverty (SGD1) - under the United Nation's sustainable development goals. In absence of economic opportunities, the second, third and fourth goals of hunger, health and education can go for a toss and this is what exactly happened in Nepal.

According to the UN, India, with a burgeoning population of 1.21 billion and per capita income of $1,352.3, fares poorly, with 21 per cent poverty rate and an abysmal human development index of 0.586. The vast size of the country isolates the area affected by natural disasters but it does leave an imprint on the income shock and pulls down the overall GDP.

Better disaster preparedness - awareness, education, better infrastructure, pre-disaster preventive measures, mitigation strategies and adequate steps for post-disaster response and later rehabilitation - is the only way the loss can be prevented. But except for cyclone handling, India's track record in disaster management is a disaster.

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has set an ambitious three-layer (national, state and district) plan to decentralise disaster management right up to district levels and guidelines and policies were drawn to that effect. On paper: so good. On ground: dud.

A 2013 CAG report about performance audit of civil disaster preparedness in India minced no words: "The NDMA neither had information and control over progress of (disaster management-related) work at the state level nor was it successful in implementation of various projects." The scathing report indicted NDMA as "ineffective in its functioning in most of the core areas."   

After the 2014 Kashmir floods, an expert told me: "Natural disasters can teach us a lot, bring home lessons and substantial knowledge. Unfortunately, we have forgotten these lessons in the past at our own peril."

In view of the changes in climatic conditions due to global warming, extreme weather events are not just here to stay but for countries such as India, there has been a warning of increase in intensity in such events. The recently released The Global Risk Report 2016 mentions that the failure towards climate change mitigation and adaptation is perceived as the most impactful risk for the years to come.

It also warned of the cascading risk of the potential for climate change "to exacerbate water crises, with impacts including conflicts and more forced migration" and called for "improved water governance" to adapt to climate change and accommodate a growing population and economic development.

A quick review of India's water governance practices - remember the Centre told the Supreme Court on April 20 that a staggering 33 crore people (more than quarter of its population) are facing drought and water shortage - underscores the need for improvement in a priority mode. Lest a natural disaster catches India unprepared.