Demonetisation: Modi should know people might just vote him out
The Prime Minister’s description of the demonetisation scheme as the biggest Swachch Bharat Abhiyaan reminds one of what Vinoba Bhave said in support of the Emergency.
Bhave, who pioneered Bhoodan movement, termed the 1975 Emergency as “anushasan parva” or chapter on discipline of Mahabharata.
Bhave earned the sobriquet of “sarkari sant” for his comment.
Narendra Modi expects the people to observe anushasan parva for 50 days to clean up the country of black money.
During the prescribed period, the people are expected to go without meeting their basic needs such as food and medicine - if need be - for the sake of making Modi’s programme a success.
Indira Gandhi who imposed the internal Emergency also demanded sacrifice from the people to make India a better country.
People were forced to go through sterilisation; they were killed in fake police encounters and put behind bars in thousands. Their very right to life was suspended.
They did put up with the pain. Some even spoke in support of the Emergency for running trains on time, for government employees reporting to office on time and generally less chaos on roads than usual in the absence of strikes and demonstrations.
After 19 months, the “anushasan parva” turned into the worst nightmare for Gandhi. She was routed in the elections. The same people who had lauded running of trains and buses on time and who praised order as opposed to chaos in ordinary Indians' lives voted overwhelmingly against the government.
The current anushasan parva the government has imposed on the people may lead to similar political consequences for Modi.
Many people who are braving long queues in front of banks and ATMs and are yet lauding the government’s demonetisation decision may vote out Modi.
They will vote against him if Modi failed to keep his promise of wiping out black money. They will throw him out of power if he failed to take visible action against those who are known and seen as beneficiaries of ill-gotten wealth and parallel economy.
Frankly, Modi has lost a major opportunity to nail the people who have a major role in generating black money, in hoarding it and using it. Even if one concedes that withdrawal of high-denomination notes are necessary steps for cracking down on black money, Modi has started at the wrong end.
He has claimed demonetisation is the first step towards cleansing the system. This should have been the last.
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| Many deaths have been reported in the country in the rush for cash. |
He should have begun at the source of black money first. The people who hold underground money in real estate, gold, land, benami property, in trade and businesses should have been the first target.
If Modi had the courage to attack the menace of black money, he should have cracked down on political parties and politicians, including the BJP and its leaders - the first who lure voters with black money.
Even a few visible and high-profile but genuine cases of attempt to ferret out unaccounted wealth would have gone a long way in convincing the people of Modi’s bonafide intent.
Modi and his advisers were aware that Rs 500 and Rs 1, 000 form over 84 per cent of the total value of currency in circulation. They knew that ordinary people, including daily wage-earners in cities and villages, would be affected by demonetisation.
When the Morarji Desai government took the decision to demonetise, it targeted the wealthy people. The demonetisation of Rs1, 000, Rs 5, 000 and Rs 10, 000 notes affected only the wealthy and people with ill-gotten money. Few ordinary and honest people could have possessed high denomination notes those days.
Today, people on the lowest rung of monthly income such as domestic helps, vendors and rickshaw pullers are in possession of high denomination notes, especially Rs 500.
Withdrawing Rs 500 notes from the market suddenly amounted to attacking the poor, domestic helps and daily wage earners as well as the salaried middle class.
That’s why the whole demonetisation scheme looks suspect. It can affect the wealthy but it will cripple the poor in the short-term.
Modi is expecting the ordinary people and the poor to make all sacrifices for his anti-black money scheme to succeed. He has called on them to bear the pain with patience and forbearance.
People are known for forbearance, fortitude and stoicism. But they are also known for avenging their humiliation and unwarranted harassment.
There is no precedent in the country of the people being put through so much difficulty for so little gain.
Most of the economists - from left to the right spectrum - have said the pain and inconvenience of demonetisation far outweigh the gains.
There is almost total unanimity among experts that demonetisation alone can’t make any major dent in curbing the menace of black money.
Understanding the operation of black money is a complex issue. Modi’s appeal to the ordinary people, who are affected by withdrawal of currency notes, to bear short-term pain for long-term gains doesn’t make sense to them even as they feel that the scheme might be good for them if it hits the real culprit.
Millions of poor and unprivileged sections of the people who are wage earners, small and marginal farmers and those who are engaged in the informal economy don’t yet know how their lives are going to be better after bearing so much pain.
If the government is indeed serious about ending the menace of black money, why hasn’t Modi started by hitting the top of the pyramid?
He should know the people would vote him out if he doesn’t deliver the promised corruption-free society within two-and-a-half years.