What Paris agreement on climate change means for India

The Paris agreement on climate change, open for ratification since April 22, 2016, is really the most significant step forward since international climate negotiations began more than two decades back, in which now the responsibility for emissions will no more be based on "historical" emissions as was enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol, but shall be shared by every country of the world.

Legal status and ratification

For the most part, the agreement document is non-operative, where many key issues have been addressed in a generic manner and been termed as COP decisions.

It is neither creating any legally binding obligation with any enforceable mechanism, nor ensures any penalty mechanism against the non-compliance. However, the agreement has been orchestrated in such a way that it allows parties with significant flexibilities to achieve their emission targets, along with a strong reporting and review mechanism that relies on a "naming and shaming" method for ensuring the accountability.

To save the agreement from the legislative requirement of two-third majority vote by the senate of USA, it has intentionally been kept with non-binding obligations, so that the president of USA himself can enter into the agreement without approaching the senate, where the Obama administration does not hold even a simple majority.

Temperature targets

All parties have agreed to set and achieve the objective of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue further efforts of limiting it to 1.5 degrees celsius.

However, any mechanism to achieve this objective and fixing of meaningful targets to reduce the emissions as well as other such efforts are missing from the agreement, which relies on the bottom-up voluntary approach - far from the set objective.

Differentiation

For the purpose of burden-sharing, the agreement has departed from the principle of "historic responsibility" and differentiating developed countries from developing counterparts. Diluting the claims of developing countries and departing from the once accepted principle of "historic responsibility", which found mention in Kyoto Protocol, the agreement has relied on "respective capabilities" of parties for burden sharing.

Specific mention of "Equity" and "common but differentiated responsibility" (CDR)" principles along with "Climate justice" and "sustainable lifestyle" in COP decisions which form the non-operating part, are few consolation prizes for developing countries - especially India, which had stressed for such specific deliberations.

Further, unlike Kyoto, the differentiation has been lifted in the case of obligations regarding reporting, inventory of greenhouse gases and the progress made in the implementation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), making it mandatory for all parties.

Financial aid

The agreement, which is coated in a vague language and has no lead on the arrangement for financial burden-sharing among parties, has resolved to setting up a new collective quantified goal of a creating a fund from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, prior to 2025.

The gravity of commitment towards such financial aid (which is part of the historic responsibility) can be well understood from the fact that it could not get any place in the operative part of the agreement, only a mention in the non-operative part of the document. 

Transparency, review and effectiveness

Departing from the "historic responsibility" principle and relaxation given to developing countries in previous negotiations, all parties now have the mandatory obligation to account for their INDCs with accuracy and transparency.

The current framework requires biennial reporting with updates regarding their mitigation efforts and, in case of developed countries, financial support and technology transfer to developing nations. 

Withdrawal of parties

The agreement has failied to take lessons from the Kyoto Protocol, from which USA had withdrawn itself, and yet again allowed all parties withdrawal from the agreement. 

Paradise for market players  

There may be combinations of positives and negatives for different groups of countries, but the real winner of the Paris agreement are multi-national corporate players and international financial institutions for whom more business in terms of the use of technologies and huge investment in innovation have been ensured while achieving the objectives set in the agreement.

Way forward

In the agreement, developing countries have only got a few new consolation phrases and some promises backed by nothing, while developed countries have finally got rid of their historical responsibility. However, the biggest achievement is mankind's, because for the first time, almost all the countries of the world have agreed to make a public commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emission in order to mitigate climate change. 

Now, when the Paris agreement is about to be enforced, developing countries like India, without lamenting on what was lost, must look at they way forward for further negotiations as the Paris agreement is not the end, but the beginning of negotiating future actions. The review and ratcheting up of INDC's commitments, finance mechanism, reporting and transparency mechanism, functioning of the carbon market et al will be in the pipeline for negotiation in the coming years.