Cauvery crisis: Is Jayalalithaa's absence costing Tamil Nadu?
Is the lack of political leadership costing Tamil Nadu dear?
That is the impression gradually gaining ground in the state, with the Centre taking a decisive position on the formation of the Cauvery Management Board.
In the process, Narendra Modi's government has brushed aside the plea put forth several times by Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa.
Twenty-four hours after the decision, P Rama Mohana Rao, chief secretary of Tamil Nadu wrote to the water resources secretary protesting against the Centre's decision to say that the board cannot be constituted now. "We are unable to understand what caused this sudden reversal in government of India's stand," Rao wrote in the letter.
Reversing its earlier position, the Centre informed the Supreme Court on Monday that the Board can be constituted only by Parliament. What's more, it also told the Court that under Article 262 of the Constitution, the apex court had no jurisdiction to direct the formation of the board either.
This has been music to Karnataka's ears, as it has always been opposed to the formation of the board as it fears it will lose control over its four reservoirs in the bargain.
The ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu realised it had been caught unawares. The best it could do was to protest by sending a delegation of its MPs led by deputy speaker of the Lok Sabha, M Thambi Durai to petition the prime minister.
Monday's development in Court showed that Karnataka had lobbied better with New Delhi than Tamil Nadu.
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| Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa. (Photo credit: PTI) |
The lower riparian state now alleges is a deal worked out between the Centre and Karnataka. The feeling gaining ground is that in Jayalalithaa's absence, the NDA decided not to be pushed around to form the board under pressure from the apex court.
In the bargain, it came across looking like siding with Karnataka on the Cauvery issue.
What Tamil Nadu does not realise is that not only is it missing Jayalalithaa's strong leadership, it is also not putting up a united fight.
Unlike Karnataka, where bitter political rivals - the Congress, the BJP and the JD(S) - are on the same page for the sake of the state, in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK and the principal opposition party, the DMK are not even on talking terms.
So while the AIADMK MPs made a rather delayed protest, DMK chief Karunanidhi accused the BJP of favouring Karnataka, with the 2018 Assembly elections in mind.
It is to be noted that unlike Tamil Nadu, where the BJP or even the Congress have no real political stakes, they are the major parties in Karnataka. Neither can be seen as taking an anti-Karnataka position.
The volte face by the Centre also helps the BJP to save face. The Deve Gowda-Siddaramaiah combine had pretty much monopolised all credit on the Cauvery issue, forcing the BJP to play the supporting role. The chatter had begun to indicate that the Centre was having a hands off policy because of pressure from Poes Garden and that the Union ministers from Karnataka like Ananth Kumar and Sadananda Gowda were not able to push the Centre to lean towards Karnataka's argument of no water to give position on Cauvery.
Also on the Mahadayi water sharing issue, the perception was that Modi, under advice from Manohar Parrikar had taken a pro-Goa position, leaving farmers in north Karnataka extremely angry.
The refusal to form the Cauvery Management Board allows Modi to make amends.
Having achieved the larger purpose of getting the formation of the Board deferred, Karnataka decided not to annoy the Supreme Court more. It released water as ordered by the Court and said that Tamil Nadu will receive 36,000 cusecs of Cauvery water by October 6.
This is the first big setback for Tamil Nadu in the post September 22 period, when Jayalalithaa has been in hospital.
This is only likely to provide ammunition to the opposition's allegation that important administrative and political decisions are not being taken in the interest of the state.
Politically, Tamil Nadu has just one minister in the Union ministry and does not have the same weight as Karnataka. Jayalalithaa's absence therefore hurts the state's interest.