Six decisions Nitish Kumar will regret this Bihar elections
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is fighting the toughest battle of his political career. Nothing succeeds like success, they say. If Nitish wins the October-November Bihar Assembly elections, he will become the undisputed leader of anti-Narendra Modi political formation and will pose a challenge to him in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But if he loses, he will regret in leisure these six decisions he and his Janata Dal (United) have taken since June 2010.
1. Cancelling dinner invite to Modi
The BJP's national executive met in Patna June 2010. As a goodwill gesture - as JD(U) was an NDA ally and was running the Bihar government together - Nitish, as chief minister, decided to play the host. He threw a dinner for the top BJP leaders at his residence. However, on the eve of the party, he abruptly cancelled the dinner, causing immense embarrassment to the BJP leaders. He was furious over a couple of advertisements which were published in local dailies showing Modi and Nitish Kumar clasping their hands together and held aloft. The ads also thanked Modi for Rs 5 crore that the Gujarat government had donated as aid in 2008 for Kosi floods. The Bihar chief minister also returned this money. Whether or not Nitish should have returned the donation is debatable but no one, by any standards, would justify his cancellation of the dinner invite.
2. Parting ways with the BJP
JD(U) rode to power in Bihar and Nitish became the chief minister in 2005 with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as its pre-poll alliance partner. The JD(U), which was a constituent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), returned to power in the 2010 Assembly elections. However, the party broke away from the NDA on June 16, 2013 in protest against Modi's elevation as chairperson of the BJP's election campaign committee. Kumar also removed 11 ministers of the BJP from his cabinet. This split with the BJP has gone against the JD(U). Nitish's image has taken a major beating as he is being accused of ditching the BJP on whose support it had not only come to power twice but had also managed to rule Bihar efficiently and smoothly. He launched several developmental schemes and arrested the crime graph which was at its worst during RJD's 15-year rule, which was termed "jungle raj" by the Patna High Court.
3. Resigning as CM
Nitish resigned from the chief minister's post on May 17, 2014, taking moral responsibility for JD(U)'s poor performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The JD(U) won only two seats despite breaking away from the BJP. He anointed Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit, as the chief minister in his place to reap electoral benefits. The category constitutes 10 per cent of the total population of Bihar and 31 per cent of the Dalits. Mahadalits were carved out from the Dalits by Nitish by identifying 18 of the 22 Dalit sub castes. With Manjhi asserting himself, and seeing his growing proximity with the BJP, Kumar replaced him in just nine months and became the chief minister once again on February 22, 2015. This has not gone down well with the Mahadalits. Kumar is likely to lose their votes as Manjhi has considerable hold over them. Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) is a BJP ally and is contesting 20 seats. Nitish's flip-flop on Manjhi has dented his image. Taking a cue from Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish has apologised to the people of Bihar for resigning as chief minister.
4. Being a part of Janata Parivar
Janata Parivar - a coalition of the Samajwadi Party (SP), JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) - came into existence in April with Mulayam Singh Yadav as its head. Nitish played an important role in the formation of this Parivar, hoping to form a third front at the national level. However, it boomeranged with, ironically, Mulayam walking out of it after the "insult" heaped on SP over seat-sharing arrangement by the "maha gathbandhan" in Bihar. It harmed the grand alliance in several ways - it embarrassed all the constituents of the grand alliance, conveyed a sense of a disintegrating alliance even before it tested the waters and sent out a message of Yadav disunity - all hurting it electorally. Had the Janata Parivar not been formed, Nitish would have escaped this bitter situation.
5. Copying Modi
Modi as Gujarat chief minister would often invoke "Gujarati asmita" (Gujarati pride), much to his advantage, whenever he would be attacked by his opponents. Nitish raised "Bihari Swabhiman" (Bihari self-respect) to counter Modi's "DNA" jibe at him. When the prime minister announced Rs 1.65 lakh crore package to Bihar, the state chief minister initially criticised him saying it was being given off like alms. However, a few days later, he too announced a Rs 2.70 lakh crore package for the state.
Modi fought the 2014 Lok Sabha elections on several fronts. He not only addressed more than 100 rallies but also aggressively used the social media and latest technology, coined catchy slogans and devised novel methods to attract different sections of the voters, particularly the youths. Helping him in several ways was Prashant Kishor, who had left his lucrative United Nations job and was a part of a team of 60 young professionals campaigning for Modi. Kishor, who has been engaged by Nitish now, has come up with "Parcha pe charcha" and "Phir ek baar Nitish Kumar" on the lines of "Chai pe charcha" and "Abki baar Modi sarkar" respectively. Similarly, while the BJP had launched "Har har Modi, ghar ghar Modi" to reach each and every voter and household to fetch votes for Modi, Kishor has coined "Har ghar dastak" for Nitish. As a result, the Bihar chief minister is being accused of just copying Modi instead of devising some new ideas in the campaign.
6. Aligning with Lalu and Congress
Lalu's influence is mainly restricted to the Yadav and Muslim vote-banks. The people of Bihar have not yet forgotten the RJD's 15-year misrule during the tenures of Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi. The law and order situation and development had become the biggest casualties during their rule. Lalu has also been jailed several times in corruption cases including the infamous fodder scam. He was convicted in 2013 and debarred from contesting elections. The Patna High Court's observation made in 1997 that there was "jungle raj" in Bihar has become synonymous with the RJD rule. The party has failed to perform satisfactorily in elections since it lost power in 2005. It won just 22 Assembly seats in the 2010 elections in the 243-member House and four Lok Sabha seats each in the 2009 and 2014 general elections.
As far as the Congress is concerned, it hardly has any presence in Bihar now. It won just four seats in the 2010 Assembly elections and two seats each in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The party does not even have any prominent leader in the state. It has been constantly on a downward slide, particularly after its defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the backdrop of several multi-crore corruption cases and controversies. Nitish's record in governance has been overshadowed up to a large extent by his aligning with RJD and Congress. He is constantly on the defensive over his association with Lalu and over the "jungle raj" charge.