5 reasons Modi's defeat will make India suffer

The mood is upbeat in the anti-Modi camp as Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has done an Arvind Kejriwal on the prime minister by trouncing the BJP-led NDA in the state Assembly elections. It is being said that the politics over cow and beef has failed to impress the Bihar voters. The act of writers, artists, scientists and film personalities over the issue of alleged "rising intolerance" is also being justified.

Conversely, it can also be argued that the Bihar elections have once again proved that caste and Muslim votebank politics played a decisive role in the highly regressive politics of the state. RJD supremo Lalu Prasad's "Mandal Raj - Part 2" has taken precedence over developmental politics as his party has bagged the maximum number of seats (80).  The JD(U) came second with 71 seats and the BJP followed with 53 seats. Both Nitish and Narendra Modi were generally focusing on development and governance as their election plank.

The Bihar elections will resonate at the national level too. It will certainly have some positive impact as it will have a sobering effect not only on Modi but also other BJP leaders. They are likely to forsake the divisive agenda. However, the nation will also suffer because of the decimation of the BJP and these are the five reasons for it:

1. Parliament disruption

The country is likely to witness more disruption of Parliament's proceedings. The monsoon session of Parliament was washed out under protests from the Congress over issues of corruption involving Union external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh chief ministers Vasundhara Raje and Shivraj Singh Chouhan respectively. The Congress will feel that its strategy of stalling Parliament over allegations against BJP functionaries has worked wonders. Emboldened by the election result in Bihar, the Opposition, particularly the Congress - which has won 27 seats in the state as against just four in the 2010 Assembly elections - is likely to step up the ruckus to disrupt Parliament proceedings. The forthcoming winter session will be its first casualty.

2. Reform measures to be hit

The Opposition has already started showing non-cooperation to the government's development initiatives like passage of the Land Acquisition Bill. Under fierce protest from the Opposition, the government will fail to introduce other reform measures like passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill. This will only hamper the growth of the nation.

3. Dent in Modi's foreign policy initiatives

Buoyed by the victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and unprecedented performance in subsequent Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana and Jharkhand, Modi had launched an aggressive foreign policy initiative. He was given a grand welcome in all the countries he visited. But the two severe and consecutive jolts the BJP suffered in Delhi and Bihar will surely dent Modi's image abroad. He may not get the same rousing welcome from the Indian diaspora and his foreign counterparts as he had been getting so far. Modi may not be in the same strong position to convince the foreign countries to provide aid and assistance to India.

4. Confrontation with non-BJP ruled states

So far, only Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal had been challenging Modi over local issues like grant of full statehood to the national capital territory or handing over control of police to the state government. Following a convincing win, Nitish will also be in a position to confront the prime minister over issues like according special category status to Bihar and sanctioning more funds for the development of the state. Kejriwal and Nitish together will also lead the non-BJP ruled states to take on the prime minister and the Centre. So, the coming days will witness more confrontation rather than cooperation between the Centre and the non-BJP ruled states.

5. 'Jungle Raj - Part 2' in Bihar

Nitish as chief minister of Bihar will not be a strong one. He will owe his post to Lalu whose party has bagged the maximum number of seats. The JD(U) was a bigger alliance partner in the NDA but now it will be a junior partner getting the chief minister's post. Nitish carries the image of a man who is focused on development, but Lalu is just his opposite: he is a convict in the fodder scam, he and his RJD are known for presiding over the worst law and order situation in the state ever. He is known for his regressive Yadav and Muslim votebank politics besides promoting dynasty with his wife Rabri Devi, daughter Misa Bharti and sons Tej Pratap and Tejaswi following his footsteps by plunging into politics. Known to be assertive, Lalu will shove his regressive agendas in the mahagathbandhan government. Bihar will witness attempts by Lalu's supporters to repeat "Jungle Raj - Part 1" by indulging in kidnappings for ransom, murders, rapes, looting, migration of youth and students in search of better education and employment, and flight of businessmen from the state.