How caste is Lalu-Nitish's biggest roadblock in Bihar polls

Caste undoubtedly is the most complex character of Bihar politics. Two other factors, development and Muslims, will matter in the upcoming Assembly elections. Both BJP-led NDA and the so-called secular coalition of three-party "grand alliance" are competing with each other on developmental issues.

As far as garnering Muslims votes is concerned, the "maha gathbandhan" can still be not sure of it. The entry of Lok Sabha MP Asadudiin Owaisi's AIMIM in the fray and projection of NCP MP Tariq Anwar as the chief ministerial candidate of the third front, which also consists of Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, has spoilt RJD supremo Lalu Prasad's game plan.

Lalu Prasad invoked replay of caste politics, or OBC politics, during the August 30 Swabhiman Rally in Patna when he thundered the comeback of "Mandal Part 2". However, the same Mandal Part 2 may prove to be maha gathbandhan's nemesis.

The atrocities by the upper castes have become passé. In fact, not only the upper castes and the Dalits but also the non-Yadavs among the over 130 castes in the OBC category were victims of the atrocities committed by Lalu's castemen during the RJD's 15 years' rule from 1990. Its result is for all to see. In the 2005 elections, the RJD contested on 175 seats and won just 54 seats. In 2010, it contested on 168 seats and won only 22. In the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it won four seats each.

Lalu's image has nosedived since then as he has been convicted and debarred from contesting elections. He has done nothing to expect the voters to back him. He has only sought to salvage his own image by aligning with JD(U) and the Congress.

Similarly, during Nitish's rule, Bihar has witnessed the same kind of oppression as during RJD's regime. Just that the players have changed. The Yadavs have been replaced by Koeris and Kurmis. At their receiving end are the Dalits and even the other castes among the OBCs. At many places, the Koeris and Kurmis are pitted on one side against the Yadavs.

Hence, what Lalu's clarion call did was to consolidate the 15 per cent upper caste in favour of the NDA. The 16 per cent Dalits, including the 10 per cent Mahadalits, have also been drawn closer to the NDA. As the five-phase elections, starting from October 12, approach fast, the caste politics is getting crystallised. Lalu's claim over the 51 per cent OBCs appears a fallacy. What the former chief minister has been able to certainly achieve is the unstinted support of his fellow caste - 14 per cent Yadavs.

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar can fall back on the support of 4 per cent Kurmis (to which he belongs) and 8 per cent Koeris. The Koeris and Kurmis are at the same level in the caste, social, economic and educational standing in the society. The Yadavs, Koeris and Kurmis constitute the three most dominant castes among the OBCs.

Thus, the NDA here has an obvious advantage - 15 per cent (upper castes) + 16 per cent (Dalits) = 31 per cent.

The NDA gets further edge over the grand alliance due to the alliance with Union consumer affairs minister Ramvilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Union minister of state for human resource development Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM).

Getting the support of 4 per cent Kushwahas and a large part of the 16 per cent Dalits and Mahadalits tips the balance in favour of the NDA. It can only be offset if the 16.99 per cent Muslims vote en bloc for the maha gathbandhan. If that does not happen, it will be NDA all the way on November 8 when the results are declared.

As against this, the "maha gathbandhan" appears weak - 14 per cent (Yadavs) + 4 per cent (Kurmis) + 8 per cent (Keoris) = 26 per cent.

The already dwindled traditional upper caste and Dalit voters will further ditch the Congress, as it plays a second fiddle to the RJD and JD(U). It is contesting just 41 seats this time around. In the 2010 Assembly elections, it had contested on all the 243 seats and won only four. It will not be a surprise if it fails to open its account in the forthcoming elections, repeating its performance of the February 2015 Delhi Assembly polls.