Why Nitish Kumar losing Bihar is good for Kejriwal
A lot of guessing game is going on in Bihar with the third phase of elections being held on Wednesday and two more phases left.
There have been few interesting developments - Prime Minister Narendra Modi cancelling his rallies, the BJP reducing the number of hired helicopters; banners and posters not having Modi's face on them - which have led to conclusions by political pundits and electoral analysts that the BJP has been losing ground and that it has conceded defeat.
However, the recent rallies by Modi, in which he attacked incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar for visiting a Tantrik, have upped the BJP's tempo again.
As already known, Nitish and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, who were old-time foes, formed an alliance to defeat Modi and stop the "communal BJP". In their quest to defeat the Modi juggernaut, they have found a surprising ally - Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal.
On Tuesday, Kejriwal tweeted, "I appeal to the brothers n sisters of Bihar to vote to make Nitish ji the CM of Bihar" and even shared it on his Facebook account.
Owing to this newly-found bonhomie, the AAP has refrained from contesting in Bihar. Last month, Kejriwal even visited Patna where he shared the stage with Nitish and verbally attacked Modi.
In an apparent reference to the Rs 1.25 lakh crore promised by Modi for the state's development, Kejriwal said, "Modi should tell whether he will give this money after winning the polls or losing it. He is not going to give (it) either way. Not to speak of Rs 1.25 lakh crore, he will not give them even Rs 1.25".
He also cited the example of how Nitish sent police officers from Bihar to support the Delhi Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB). In this context, he said, "Both incidents are before you. One chief minister immediately sent honest officers to strengthen our ACB, while Modi government sent paramilitary forces to capture it. You have to decide who has the commitment to fight corruption. While one seeks to strengthen the ACB, the other weakens it."
During Kejriwal's first term, he resigned after 49 days, accusing the Congress and BJP of stalling the Jan Lokpal Bill in the Assembly. Though he has never admitted it, it is evident that he had an eye on the 2014 Lok Sabha election as he believed that the nationwide support that was behind him would have ensured a significant number of seats to the AAP in the general election as well. Unfortunately, Kejriwal's utopia was shattered badly.
Though Kejriwal apologised for his indiscretion during his first term as Delhi chief minister and led the AAP to a historic win in Delhi earlier this year, he has a ravenous hunger for power and definitely has an eye on the 2019 Lok Sabha election, in which he could emerge as the prime ministerial candidate of a Congress-led coalition or a third front.
Though the BJP won an overwhelming majority in the 2014 general election, every party suffers from anti-incumbency by the time subsequent elections arrive. If such a scenario does arise, in which the BJP doesn't win a majority and the Congress makes a decent comeback, it would not be far-fetched to say that the Congress might be able to forge alliances (in which it is quite good at as witnessed in the past) to form the government. Though Congress president Sonia Gandhi's prime ministerial ambitions for her son Rahul is quite well known, but it is clear that without an outright majority, the chances of Rahul Gandhi becoming the prime minister are extremely bleak.
Here is where the Bihar election comes into play. Though Kejriwal is supporting Nitish because of their common angst against Modi, the outcome of the election will make a huge difference to his prospects for the 2019 general election.
If Nitish loses, then Kejriwal's image as Modi's principal competitor will be strengthened. He would then be the only one who stopped the Modi juggernaut with his party defeating the BJP comprehensively. However, if Nitish manages to emerge victorious in Bihar, then Kejriwal's prospects for the next general election might be severely dented.
Assembly elections in other states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala, Assam and Tamil Nadu are due in the next three years, and none of the leaders from these states have the ability to be Modi's prime competitor, nor can they match Kejriwal's persona and crowd pulling abilities. Furthermore, barring Uttar Pradesh and to a very limited extent Assam, the BJP doesn't really stand a chance to secure power in other states.
Nitish and Kejriwal have united to fight against a common foe, but should Nitish win, it is Kejriwal who stands to lose the most. Even though Nitish cannot match Kejriwal's charisma, in the case of the JD(U) winning in Bihar, Kejriwal will lose that significant edge that he gained by reducing the BJP to just three seats in Delhi.