Beyond Bihar: The rocky road to 2019
Overall, the message from Bihar is ominous for the BJP: the scale of another defeat, following the Delhi rout, shows that the momentum has shifted decisively against the party. This is especially true when the opposition unites against it as it so effectively did in Bihar. The opposition, having smelt blood, will now unite nationally.
The BJP has disappointed its core support base, comprising around 40 per cent of the electorate (including allies), for three reasons.
One, by not pursuing cases against allegedly corrupt members of the UPA government. The government was soft on Robert Vadra till it was prodded to file proceedings against him on land deals in Haryana. It took the aviation and home ministries 16 months to even strike his name off the no-frisk VVIP list at airports. The centre has showed little interest in pursuing the National Herald case against Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi despite a trial court finding prima facie evidence to issue summons to both as "accused".
Two, by allowing choreographed events to derail its electoral campaigns. First, before the Delhi poll over bogus church attacks. Second, before the Bihar poll over equally bogus claims of rising intolerance in India. The perception battle was lost by appallingly amateurish media management.
Three, by not controlling prices. The prime minister's choice of chief economic advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian, recommended by Arun Jaitley, was misguided. The CEA has added little of value to economic policy. His comments three months ago on climate change - deeply antithetical to India's interests - had to be publicly repudiated by environment minister Prakash Javadekar. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan, recruited by former finance minister P Chidambaram, has not helped kickstart economic growth by cutting interest rates too little, too late. His term ends in ten months.
The index of opposition unity (IOU) will provide the BJP its sternest test in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Arithmetic prevailed over chemistry in Bihar. It could do so in 2019. The prime minister must refocus on development, not deity. Aspirational young Indians are religious but not communal. Pushing Hindutva at the expense of Bharatiyata, as I wrote here in September 2015, is counter-productive.
The message from Bihar is clear: celebrate diversity. Induct more women and minorities into the cabinet. If they are technocrats with domain knowledge, so much the better. Fifteen of new Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau's 30-member cabinet are women. Four ministers are Sikh. His defence minister, Harjit Sajjan, is a decorated Afghan war veteran. The other Sikhs in Trudeau's rainbow cabinet are industry minister Navdeep Bains, tourism minister Bardish Chagger and infrastructure minister Amarjeet Sohi.
When asked why he had appointed 15 women and four Sikhs out of 30 ministers, the charismatic Trudeau quipped: "Because it's 2015. Get with it."
The takeaway for Prime Minister Narendra Modi: be liberal on social and cultural issues, not just on the economy. The NDA government is illiberal on social and cultural issues (not jettisoning Section 377 on decriminalising gays is just one example) and is not liberal enough on real economic reforms. Tax and labour reforms, for instance, are stuck in the slothful 1980s. Even former finance minister P. Chidambaram has wondered aloud why the regressive retrospective tax (introduced by his predecessor Pranab Mukherjee when he was finance minister) hasn't yet been repealed. This has severely impacted the confidence of foreign investors.
In Gujarat, Modi banished Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togadia for a decade and focused on development. He was re-elected thrice. In the central government, he must control those in his flock who spew venom. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) lives in a different world. It may be critical to the BJP as a provider of organised cadre during elections but its social and economic thinking is illiberal and out of date. It would be a mistake to defend RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's comment on reviewing reservations, coming as it did in the middle of the Bihar campaign. It reversed the momentum decisively in favour of the mahagathbandhan (MGB). The error was compounded by not using other BJP leaders in the campaign to give the impression of a cohesive team leading the charge rather than a one-man army.
The prime minister must speak more. Every event of reasonable national importance deserves the prime minister's attention. Barack Obama, David Cameron and leaders of other democracies speak out frequently on issues that are politically, socially or culturally relevant. So must Modi. Silence is not an option. I had used the exact same words - "silence is not an option" - to criticise Manmohan Singh on a Times Now Newshour debate way back in September 2012. The then prime minister's infamous silences during the UPA government's humongous scams were as damaging to the government's credibility as the prime minister's taciturnity today is to the NDA government.
As an adjunct, the prime minister must acquire a professional media team. The Press Information Bureau (PIB) is too bureaucratic and hide-bound. What the prime minister needs is a competent media cell attached to the PMO, which provides a daily 30-minute media briefing at 4.00 pm on current issues as, for instance, the White House unfailingly does.
The PM must throw economic caution to the winds
Be bold - liberalise the economy. Incremental reforms won't do. The bureaucracy is as slippery as ever. Make it accountable for time-bound outcomes. Bring in professionals from outside with specific domain knowledge.
It is also time to reshuffle the cabinet. Ministers who are doing well should stay: Sushma Swaraj, Nirmala Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, Manohar Parrikar, Suresh Prabhu, Nitin Gadkari, Dharmendra Pradhan and several others. But many are not pulling their weight. They must be put on notice. Perform or be shuffled.
It is critical the PM hold quarterly meetings with NDA allies led by the NDA convenor. Take them into confidence on strategies and outcomes - from the corrosive situation in Nepal to the price of tur dal. Be collective and decisive - not insular and indecisive. Otherwise, allies could well abandon the BJP, one by one, before 2019. That includes the Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal and the LJP.
It is equally important to implement recent steps taken to strengthen foreign policy. Stay tough on Pakistan. Recover lost ground with Nepal. Keep Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar on your side. With the West, China and Japan, follow up on all investment promises. Cement geostrategic ties. India has a huge consumer market and unprecedented opportunities in infrastructure. Leverage these.
The prime minister's visit to Britain beginning this Thursday (November 12) will be a test of how much and how quickly foreign investment can be deployed for economic development. Economic revival is now visible - Blackstone, ABB and Merck recently announced significant investments in India, including making the country an export hub for Asia and Africa.
The message from Bihar
Broadly, then, this is the picture that emerges from the dust and debris of the BJP's Bihar defeat:
1. The BJP must deepen economic reforms. It has two-and-a-half years to do this. By May 2018, the countdown for the May 2019 Lok Sabha election will begin. By then if the economy is not in top shape and food prices not in control, the BJP will suffer a crushing defeat.
2. Anti-incumbency is a big factor. It will hit the BJP with the force of a gale in 2019. The only way to counter it is to place development at the centre of everything the party now does.
3. Finally, inclusiveness. Polarisation works as a short-term electoral tactic. But in the longer term the only factor that will allow the BJP to win 2019 is inclusiveness: with allies, with communities, and with ideas.
The BJP can take heart from the fact that a convicted felon, Lalu Prasad Yadav, says he will lead the combined opposition's campaign against Modi. This is the same man with whom Rahul Gandhi refused to share the dais during the Bihar election campaign and who is out of jail on bail over the fodder scam. If the BJP cannot even counter him when Lalu launches his national anti-Modi campaign from Varanasi, it does not deserve to govern India after 2019.
The media has shown how perceptions can change the trajectory of an election. The orchestrated campaign on "intolerance" is only one example. If the BJP cannot overcome the dark machinations of Lutyens' media (it has inexplicably dragged its feet, for example, on pursuing the Enforcement Directorate's charges of money laundering against a TV channel), it can neither expect nor receive any sympathy.
Rajiv Gandhi was subject to relentless attack between 1987 and 1989 by the opposition and the media over Bofors, Shah Bano and the aborted anti-defamation bill. He plunged from over 400 seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha election to less than 200 in 1989. Modi should study Rajiv, circa 1987-89, and learn from his fall from grace.