SIMI encounter will help BSP as much as surgical strikes is helping BJP in UP polls
When the eight SIMI terror suspects fled from Bhopal Central Jail at the wee hours of the day after Diwali and within eight hours of their "jail break", not only were they found by MP police but also were all "killed in an encounter", it looked like a pretty impressive operation.
Till the videos shot on mobile phones by the constables and the locals emerged, driving huge holes through the carefully put together, but terribly sloppy nevertheless, narrative of the MP Police.
This was "ably" assisted by the home minister of MP who went out of his way to embarrass his own government and cement whatever doubt people had about whether the encounter was genuine or not.
Soon, every party from the Congress to Left to AAP jumped into the fray, as they demanded a judicial inquiry into what they felt was a staged encounter.
However, there was one party, which was watching all the development related to the SIMI men encounter in Madhya Pradesh with glee. That party was the BSP.
Just as the BJP hitched its UP poll wagon to the surgical strike, the BSP is also completely aware of the political fallout of this "encounter" of eight SIMI men, with enough holes in it for the party to fill in a suitably volatile political narrative.
A UP BJP leader refusing to comment on the encounter admitted that with several videos coming out in the open, raising doubts about its genuineness, it could be used to a deadly advantage by the BSP.
And this was also not lost on the BSP, which has been working overtime to engineer a Dalit-Muslim combine.
BSP supremo Mayawati was quick to jump the gun. She accused the BJP of furthering its political agenda and that of the RSS by using the police for its nefarious political purpose.
She said that there were reports coming from the horse's mouth that is straight from MP Police, that the SIMI terror suspects could have been easily apprehended and caught alive. She demanded that there should be a judicial enquiry into this encounter.
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| BSP supremo Mayawati. (Photo credit: PTI) |
The BJP leaders admit that the BSP has been extraordinarily lucky in the last couple of months. One of the reasons why the BJP has been steadfastly calling the SP as its main rival was that it didn't want any division of the Muslim vote and a strong SP would have benefitted the BJP to a great degree. But the prospect of the SP staging a second comeback has been considerably weakened with no signs of the internal feud abating anytime soon.
The constant Pari-war has had a majority of Muslims in UP a lot worried as they considered the SP as their first choice. But with Yadav troubles showing no signs of abating, the Muslims in UP are a confused lot now, as they are left with only one true alternative - the BSP.
This potential realignment of votes has also got BJP a lot worried. In the Akhil Bharatiya Karyakari Mandal (ABKM) of the RSS, which was held in Hyderabad, the senior leadership accepted that a weak SP means bad news for the BJP. With this latest development, crease on the furrows of the BJP has only increased.
And it is in this context that both the BJP and the BSP are looking at the "encounter" of the SIMI men in Madhya Pradesh.
The BJP understands that the only way out is to play it aggressively. With a successful JNU episode behind and the surgical strike episode very still new, they still have a chance of whipping up the pseudo-patriotic fervour and create a parallel nationalistic narrative. However, even they are aware how this encounter can decisively tilt the balance in BSP's favour.
A BSP leader on request of anonymity admitted that the timing of this "fake encounter" couldn't have come at a better time for his party. He said, "Delhi and Bihar have shown the Muslim voter of UP how they stand to gain if they vote decisively."
With the SP down in the dumps and the BSP emerging as the only credible alternative to take on the BJP, it wouldn't be a surprise if the party manages to have the Muslim mandate swing its way.
With more than 100 tickets being given to Muslims, Mayawati has already made a big political statement to the community. Party insiders feel that this "fake encounter" has come at the right time and is important enough to lay bare the real intent of the party.
Once that happens, it will not be difficult for the community, which can cause crucial swings in various parts of the state, to make a decision.
The party is also hopeful of the fact that even if there is a Muslim consolidation, there will be no counter polarisation in Uttar Pradesh as what happened in MP is not a Hindu versus Muslim issue, but is about a BJP-ruled state using its police force to kill Muslim undertrials in an alleged fake encounter. This imagery will help the BSP reap rich political dividends.
With the MP government ordering a CID probe in the encounter and the NHRC issuing notice to the state government, all movements in the SIMI encounter case are being closely monitored by each and every party.
Only one week ago, who would have thought that elections in Uttar Pradesh would be impacted by something which happened more than 700km away.