Why Punjab - and not UP - will determine the course of national politics
A lot of hype is built around Uttar Pradesh elections, primarily because of the size, population and political history of the state.
Perhaps, this build-up stems from the media's conservative obsession with "big" things to talk about: big numbers, big players, big theories, big impact and so forth.
But let's not forget India has entered into an age of disruptive politics.
And we have two striking examples of disruption in this sphere: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Delhi's chief minister Arvind Kejriwal.
Their speeches, their actions, their moves are a stunning departure from orthodox politics and economics. In their own separate settings – whether at the national or at the state levels – both are locked in a fierce competition with each other to prove who is a bigger agenda-changer.
Now that election schedules for Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur are announced, I believe the national course of politics will this time be determined unusually by the Sikh heartland over the conventional bets on UP.
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| A rise of the Congress party or Kejriwal's AAP in Punjab will have real-world repercussions on national politics right up to 2019. [Photo: PTI] |
If Uttar Pradesh will test the popularity of Modi after he abruptly junked 86 per cent of currency, Punjab is going to decide who will be the prime minister's strongest rivals in 2019: a Congress led by its vice-president Rahul Gandhi or a new set of allies sharing the opposition platform with Kejriwal.
Out of power in Uttar Pradesh for 14 years now, the BJP is still facing the old guard of politics in the state.
Still, UP is a battle of prestige for Modi himself. And I agree it's no small battle for a prime minister whose demonetisation measure, packaged in nationalistic rhetoric, has just rattled household budgets, working capital and productivity in almost every sector. It's no small battle if an entire nation has been forced to queue up for a ration of cash in peacetime for months.
Uttar Pradesh may weaken or strengthen Modi and his BJP but it won't immediately change the status quo at the Raisina Hills.
But a rise of the Congress party or Kejriwal's AAP in Punjab will have real-world repercussions on national politics right up to 2019.
The Delhi CM's party has already established its foothold in the Sikh-majority state, largely because of the perceived aversion towards the ruling Badal family and because of the Congress party's downtime.
Modi's note ban appears to have worsened the Shiromani Akali Dal's precarious prospects further, especially in rural Punjab.
It's a settled affair that Kejriwal has punched a hole into the state's bipolar politics by carving a space out for his AAP that has its origins in New Delhi.
Sikh groups opposed to the Badals have failed to consolidate either as a local alternative.
Essentially, it's a close fight now between the Congress party's Amarinder Singh and Kejriwal's AAP.
A majority vote for Singh will mark Rahul Gandhi's revival. It will put his Congress back on the tracks after its humiliating rout in 2014 nationally.
But if Delhi's Aam Aadmi Party emerges victorious in the state that's historically been possessive about its natural resources and distinct identity, the outcome is then bound to transform the opposition ballgame for 2019.
In either case, Modi's potential competitor in the next general elections will likely have his foundations in Punjab – and not Uttar Pradesh.