Amit Shah will make BJP see achhe din in UP

"Der aye par durust aye" (it has come late but it is perfect). That is how most people within and outside the BJP described the appointments of party chiefs in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Karnataka. National BJP president Amit Shah had exuded confidence, particularly during campaigning for the Assembly elections in Assam.

This is a far cry from the dark phase in 2015 when the BJP suffered two thumping defeats under him in Delhi and Bihar, though they were, of course, not entirely of his making. His master stroke was the appointment of Keshav Prasad Maurya as the Uttar Pradesh BJP chief. Maurya is an MP from Phulpur - a constituency represented by India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

An OBC and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) worker, Maurya had trained under late Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Ashok Singhal, but is controlled in his aggression.

Maurya’s appointment demonstrates Shah’s vision that was partially reflected in his selection of Lok Sabha candidates of the BJP as party general secretaries in 2014, in an attempt to develop a credible and ideologically strong and nationalist leadership in the party that is also politically result-oriented.

Although a surprise choice, Maurya appears to know his job well. Coming from the Maurya or Saini caste (akin to Mali or gardener), he was nagar karyavah of the RSS once and therefore, has been brought up under typical RSS discipline while later, working in the VHP, he acquired the aggression for causes like gauraksha (cow protection).

His campaigns against cow slaughter in the past have been effective. But what is important is that he understands the development agenda of the Modi government, unlike many saffron leaders of the Uttar Pradesh BJP who have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot while speaking on issues concerning Hindu-Muslim relations, and puncturing Modi’s development agenda while making the Hindutva ideology too pronounced to derive any benefit.

Significantly, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has been working very hard to retain power by appeasing his Yadav-Muslim voter base with a smattering of good governance, even inviting his father and Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav's ire in the process.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader and former chief minister Mayawati too has been gearing up for the fight and making the correct moves. But still, good governance, especially police reform, will remain one of the main issues in Uttar Pradesh.

The functioning of the police department remains poor under the present government and can be equated with "Jungle Raj" in many parts of the state.

The BJP has a good chance if it can play a mild Hindutva card and also the development agenda. It can draw, in this regard, from some of the successes of the Modi government, particularly from that fact that the Modi government is one of the cleanest at the Centre in many, many decades, which has wiped out the dalal (middle men) culture.

Now, in Uttar Pradesh, much will depend on Maurya, but Shah has to demonstrate sagacity here in selecting the right Rajput/Thakur leaders who can give confidence to the relatively mild Sainis and other milder non-Yadav OBC groups during the campaign and on the voting day.

Shah has to keep the party's Kurmi leader and contender for the post of the state BJP chief Swatantradev Singh in good humour. For that, he has to give Swatantradev Singh some post connected with the Union government that gives an impression that the Kurmis have been incorporated in the power structure.

A strategy will also have to be put in place for the Jat community. It is a tricky matter when the Jats are obsessed with reservation. Much is being made of the criminal cases against Maurya, but these largely appear to be of a political nature. The appointment of Maurya has come slightly late, but clearly, there is enough time for the BJP to make up lost ground.

The appointment of Dalit leader Vijay Sampla as the party chief in Punjab - a state with a sizeable Dalit population - is also very apt. Sampla has been brought up under the RSS culture and has been the Union minister of state for social justice and empowerment.

A former plumber and also a labourer, Sampla is the most credible Dalit face in a state where Dalits matter in terms of numbers.

On the other hand, the appointment of BS Yeddyurappa is also the best thing that could have been done to improve the BJP’s fortunes in Karnataka. Although a corruption case had led to his downfall, the allegations of corruption in his case wasn't too big, and the case didn't destroy his image. He was more a victim of BJP’s internal rivalries rather than genuine public ire.

Shah is an accomplished orator now

The BJP national president's speeches during campaigning for the ongoing elections reveal the long strides he had taken in terms of his oratory. Earlier, he was known for his sharp debating skills on TV shows, but not so much for his oratory.

But his speeches in Assam provided a good insight into his grasp over the local issues and temperament. Knowing that the Assamese were simple people and also sensitive, his rhetoric was measured during his campaigning.

If he highlighted the failures of the Tarun Gogoi government by saying, "Gogoi as a tired man who needs to be given rest", He also sought to create fear in the people’s minds that Gogoi and Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) may be joining hands after elections in a manner that had them bursting into peals of laughter.

“Gogoiji aur Ajmalji din mein to ek doosre ko koste hain, lekin raat mein Gauhati ki five-star hotel mein ilu, ilu (I love you) karte hain.” And then he took rhetoric to the highest pitch: "BJP will sit in Opposition for 50 years, but not shake hands with Ajmal for the sake of power.”

Sealing the Assam border with Bangladesh and curbing the intruder problem is, of course, one of Shah's promises but a bigger promise is to make Assam India’s number one state: “What is it that Assam doesn’t have? It has everything, from natural resources, minerals to scenic beauty and the Rhino. Make Sarbananda Sonowal the chief minister and see the change that PM Modiji brings to Assam. BJP has the capacity to make Assam the number one state of India. You tolerated the Congress and its corrupt ways for 15 years. Now give us a chance to cleanse the stables and put Assam on the path of progress.”

And then followed his last act marked by a series of questions aimed at converting the odd doubting voter into a supporter. Shah ended his speech thus: "Will you vote for BJP?" "Yes", thundered the crowd. The word "Poriborton" (change) was on the lips of most of the people in Shah’s rallies.

His strategy for the current electoral campaign is just about perfect and gives an instant impression that he has picked up quite a few threads from his mentor and master speaker, Modi. In Assam, the scales are visibly tilting in favour of the BJP-led alliance.

But Shah will have to regulate the BJP’s aggression on nationalist issues in Uttar Pradesh

His toughest test would be how he controls the Hindutva aggression in Uttar Pradesh so that his party is able to reap benefits in the polls next year. In spite of a good beginning, there are many obstacles in Shah’s path in the state.

The obstacles comprise the likes of Sakshi Maharaj and Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti who can upset the BJP’s applecart in Uttar Pradesh by overplaying the Muslim card. The BJP right now needs to expose the failures of the Akhilesh government in terms of governance, the Muslim appeasement policies of the so-called secular parties, while taking up nationalist issues in a controlled language.

Yogi Adityanath, BJP’s star speaker in Uttar Pradesh, will also have to demonstrate controlled aggression while campaigning and accomodate moderate Muslims when he speaks. Interestingly, a large section of Muslims, particularly the Deobandis have been silent since the Bihar polls. And the BJP will have to understand this strategy of silence.

This section of the Muslims aims at not using strong language against the BJP openly, but doing everything to defeat the BJP from the sidelines. In Bihar, the mahagathbandhan gave the Muslims a clear-cut option. But the situation is different in Uttar Pradesh where there are three parties vying for Muslim votes.

There are all the chances that the Deoobandi voter’s first choice will be the candidate who can defeat the BJP in a given constituency. According to a Muslim source, the community would vote even for an independent candidate if he could trounce the BJP.

But on the flip side there is silver lining. Thanks to Modi’s recent overtures to the moderate Sufi section in the Sunni Muslim community, the BJP can reap political benefits if it plays its cards well and separates the Sufis (also called Barelvis), who are bitter ideological rivals of the Deobandis, from the anti-BJP coalition. It is something that is difficult but not impossible.