Middle classes rally around Arvind Kejriwal, exit poll shatters middle class apathy notion

Middle-class apathy with Arvind Kejriwal’s theatrics was one of the running themes in the build up to the showdown between BJP and AAP. Public perception has been that while the poor and downtrodden of Delhi were strong supporters of the Jhadoo, the middle-classes and the rich were still enchanted by the promise of stability and good governance held out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The India Today Cicero Exit Poll data shatters the notion that the middle class of Delhi was antipathetic towards Kejriwal. The Cicero Exit Poll conducted on February 7 at 210 locations among 7,668 voters shows that the Aam Aadmi Party was more popular not just among the working class and the lower middle class but also among the relatively more affluent middle class voters of Delhi.

It is interesting to note that the gap between the popularity of AAP and BJP narrows as one moves up the income pyramid. If the colonies of Delhi were to be divided as per the Delhi government’s property circle rates, then a very revealing trend emerges.

The maximum gap between AAP and BJP is in the working class colonies of Delhi, which are the G and H category colonies as per the circle rate classification. These include colonies like Ambedkar Nagar, Dabri Extension, Vivek Vihar and Sultanpur Majra. Taken together in the G and H type colonies, AAP has 45 per cent of the vote-share which is 10 per cent more than the 35 per cent projected to be bagged by the BJP.

In the lower middle class colonies of Delhi like Dilshad Colony, BR Ambedkar Colony and Govindpuri the gap between AAP and BJP reduces only slightly to 9 per cent. AAP is expected to receive 43 per cent of the vote share in these F class colonies in comparison with the 34 per cent garnered by the BJP.

As one moves to the middle-class colonies of Delhi like Darya Ganj, Janakpuri, Karol Bagh,Chandni Chowk, Paharganj and Moti Nagar the gap between AAP and BJP narrows down to 5 per cent. These colonies are classified as D and E as per the circle rate classification. These were localities where the BJP had done very well in the Lok Sabha elections in May. It is here that the BJP strategists hoped that voters would back the Modi-Bedi duo in large numbers. These areas were central to the BJP strategy of besting AAP. But here too, Kejriwal’s party received 42 per cent of the vote-share while the BJP lagged at 37 per cent.

The only areas of Delhi where the BJP is ahead of the Aam Aadmi Party are the colonies classified as elite. These include areas like Friends Colony, Vasant Vihar, Golf Links, Defence Colony, Greater Kailash, Hauz Khas, Vasnt Kunj, Lajpat Nagar and Punjabi Bagh. These colonies come under the A, B, C categories as per the circle tax rates. Here the BJP netted 41 per cent of the vote-share in comparison with AAP, which bagged 36 per cent vote-share.

It would be particularly disconcerting for the BJP that the party of the Chaiwala is today perceived by the voters of the capital as the party of the rich while the party of the IRS officer is seen as the party with closer ties to the poor.

The caste wise break-up of the Delhi exit poll also throws up interesting results. Among numerically significant lower castes like the Dalits the Aam Aadmi Party enjoys a massive 13 per cent gap over the BJP. AAP vote-share is projected at 42 per cent in comparison with the 29 per cent that the BJP is expected to bag. Dalits were traditional supporters of the Congress party but in these elections only 11 per cent of the Dalits who were sampled said that they had voted for Congress. Among OBCs too AAP enjoys a 8 per cent lead over the BJP.

The BJP does well among the Gujjars and the Jats of the capital. Among these castes BJP enjoys a roughly 10 per cent lead over Kejriwal’s party. The BJP also leads amongst the Sikhs of the capital, but the gap between BJP and AAP is a narrow 3 per cent.

The biggest blow to the BJP seems to be the fact that among the trader community of Delhi, the party is shown as lagging behind AAP. The BJP has traditionally been seen as a party of the traders of the capital and to lose out to AAP among the Baniyas would be deeply disconcerting for Amit Shah and Narendra Modi.

As expected, the BJP has a lead over AAP among the Hindu upper castes of Delhi like the Brahmins, Punjabis and other upper castes. But unlike what the BJP would have hoped for, even here, AAP has been able to make significant inroads and the gap between the BJP and AAP is not very significant.

Projected vote share by locality type

(Note: localities defined by official circle rates)

Projected vote share by caste/community

Source: India Today-Cicero Exit Poll